As MLB enters the final week of the regular season, the Atlanta Braves are in an unusual situation—sitting outside the playoff race. With a record of 85-71, Atlanta is one-and-a-half games behind the Diamondbacks and two games behind the Mets, with just six games remaining.
Today marks the beginning of the Braves’ most crucial series of the season, a pivotal face-off against the New York Mets in Atlanta. The outcome of this series will determine the tiebreaker if both teams finish with identical records at the end of the season. This series is the most significant regular season matchup the Braves have faced since their rebuild concluded in 2018, especially regarding its potential implications for their playoff chances.
There’s been talk suggesting that the Braves need to sweep the Mets, and while it’s true that a sweep would put Atlanta in control of their own fate, if they fail to do so, they will have to rely on other teams to defeat the Diamondbacks or Mets. Ultimately, what they require is either to win two more games than the Diamondbacks during the upcoming week or to secure at least two victories against the Mets and win two more than the Mets in the remaining games. The Diamondbacks will finish their season at home with three games versus San Francisco and three against San Diego, the Mets will have a three-game series in Milwaukee after leaving Atlanta, and the Braves will complete the regular season at home with a three-game series against Kansas City.
Taking all of this into account, a 5-1 week should suffice. If they manage to win two out of three against the Mets and sweep the Royals, the Mets would be required to sweep Milwaukee on the road, and Arizona would need at least a 4-2 record to keep the Braves from making the playoffs.
However, achieving a 5-1 week is no small feat, especially against two teams currently vying for playoff spots. This is why many Braves fans (as well as beat writers) anticipated that the Braves might swap Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach in the pitching rotation, having Sale start Game 1 against the Mets on regular rest Tuesday, ensuring his availability on regular rest for Game 162 versus Kansas City on Sunday—if the Braves’ playoff hopes were on the line. Sale is currently the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young, and having him pitch in two of those games certainly enhances the chances of achieving a 5-1 week. To everyone’s surprise, the Braves announced they would keep Schwellenbach as the Tuesday starter and have Sale pitch on Wednesday, setting up Schwellenbach as the probable starter for what could be a season-defining contest against the Royals in Game 162.
Opinions on this decision are divided, and it’s possible that the Braves may come to regret it. Nevertheless, there are three compelling reasons supporting this approach:
- Sale’s velocity has been declining as the season progresses.
- Securing a win against the Mets is the main objective.
- Spencer Schwellenbach possesses significant pitching capabilities.
Let’s delve deeper into each of these reasons in order.
Chris Sale’s velocity has shown a decline recently.
This season has been filled with unexpected events—mostly in unfortunate ways—but among the positive surprises has been Chris Sale’s return to elite form. Numerous analyses have highlighted Sale’s dominance, and many more will emerge on this platform about his season in the near future. The revival of Sale’s velocity has played a crucial role in his resurgence—this year, he is averaging 94.8 mph with his four-seam fastball, marking the first time since 2018 that he has exceeded 94.0 mph in a season with more than 10 innings pitched.
However, over his last four starts, Sale’s average velocity has dipped to 93.8 mph—a full tick lower than his seasonal average. It is noteworthy that during this period, he has managed to find some additional velocity against…
In his matchup against the Dodgers, he showcased impressive performance, averaging 95.9 mph with his four-seamer and allowing just one run over six innings. However, during his three other starts, he recorded averages of 93.0 mph, 93.6 mph, and a season-low 92.7 mph in his latest appearance against the Reds. Although he maintained effectiveness in those outings, his pitches clearly lacked the same vigor in Cincinnati compared to earlier performances; pitchers tend to be most successful when throwing at their peak velocity.
Sale has already surpassed any workload he has experienced in the past five years, so it wouldn’t come as a surprise if he is encountering some fatigue. The Braves management likely recognized this and chose to grant him an extra day of rest to ensure he returns with the superior performance he has consistently shown throughout the season for this critical moment. This leads me to my second point.
The Braves must secure a win for Chris Sale against the Mets.
Winning the series against New York is crucial for the Braves’ playoff aspirations; securing a tiebreaker is essential. The Braves must feel confident that by giving Sale an additional day of rest, they can elicit greater performance from him in this series compared to what they might achieve with two additional starts from a fatigued pitcher. The choice is straightforward.
A significant factor that supports this strategy is the presence of Spencer Schwellenbach, who serves as a viable alternative for Chris Sale during Game 162. Moving on to my third point.
Spencer Schwellenbach is a highly competent pitcher.
Schwellenbach’s rise this season has been nothing short of remarkable. For someone who was not ranked among the top 100 prospects by most sources prior to his debut, it is impressive that nearly every statistical measure confirms his status as a top-tier MLB starter.
Although his initial starts were somewhat challenging, he has excelled since then. Below are his statistics and MLB rankings among 69 qualified starting pitchers, starting from his third MLB start on June 12th:
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Schwellenbach’s Last 17 Starts
| IP | K% | BB% | K-BB% | ERA | FIP | SIERA | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IP | K% | BB% | K-BB% | ERA | FIP | SIERA | fWAR |
In his last 10 starts, he has performed even better, achieving a strikeout rate of 29.1%, a walk rate of 5.1%, alongside a 2.75 ERA and a 2.86 FIP. This impressive stretch included matchups against the Phillies, one against the Dodgers, and a game at Coors Field. The Braves are fully confident that Schwelly, despite being a rookie, is a dependable player for high-stakes games against strong opponents. Should the Braves have a week that makes Game 162 significant, they will certainly test that trust on Sunday.
Braves Face Critical Showdown Against Mets as Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance
The Atlanta Braves are gearing up for a pivotal series against the New York Mets, a matchup that could define their playoff aspirations. As the season enters its final stretch, every game becomes increasingly crucial, particularly against division rivals like the Mets. This article delves into the implications of this showdown, key players to watch, and strategies that could lead the Braves to victory.
Current Standings and Playoff Implications
As of late September 2023, the Braves find themselves in a tight race for a playoff spot in the National League. The standings are particularly competitive, with teams jostling for the Wild Card positions. Here’s a brief overview of the current standings:
| Team | Wins | Losses | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 83 | 67 | .553 |
| Mets | 79 | 71 | .527 |
| Phillies | 81 | 68 | .544 |
The stakes are high as the Braves approach their series against the Mets. A series win would not only strengthen their playoff bid but also boost team morale as they head into the postseason.
Key Players to Watch
In critical games like this, individual performances can make a significant difference. Here are some key players from the Braves to keep an eye on:
- Ronald Acuña Jr. – The star outfielder has been a consistent force for the Braves. His ability to get on base and create scoring opportunities is crucial in tight matchups.
- Max Fried – As one of the Braves’ top pitchers, Fried’s performance in the series could be a game-changer. His ability to control the game from the mound will be vital.
- Ozzie Albies - Known for his speed and defensive skills, Albies can turn the tide of a game with his agility on the base paths and in the field.
Mets’ Challenges and Opportunities
The Mets come into this series with their own set of challenges. While they are competing for a playoff spot, inconsistency in their pitching lineup has been a concern. Here are some factors that may influence the series:
- Injury Concerns – The Mets have dealt with injuries to key players throughout the season. Their depth will be tested against a formidable Braves lineup.
- Pitching Matchups – The effectiveness of the Mets’ starting pitchers will be crucial. They need to establish early leads to relieve pressure on their bullpen.
- Offensive Production – The Mets need their bats to come alive. Consistent contribution from the middle of the lineup could make a significant difference.
Head-to-Head Performance
Historically, the Braves and Mets have had a competitive rivalry. Analyzing their head-to-head matchups can provide insights into what to expect in this series:
| Year | Braves Wins | Mets Wins |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 11 | 8 |
| 2022 | 9 | 10 |
| 2023 (as of Sept.) | 8 | 5 |
As evidenced by the 2023 record, the Braves have had the upper hand in recent matchups, which could serve as a confidence booster heading into this crucial series.
Strategies for Success
For the Braves to secure a series win, they need to focus on several key strategies:
1. Strong Starting Pitching
Establishing a strong presence from the starting pitchers is essential. The Braves need their starters to go deep into games to preserve the bullpen for potential high-pressure situations.
2. Aggressive Base Running
Utilizing speed on the bases can create scoring opportunities. The Braves should look to take extra bases and apply pressure on the Mets’ defense.
3. Balanced Offense
Having a balanced offensive attack where every player contributes will be critical. The Braves should aim for consistent production from both their power hitters and contact hitters.
4. Defensive Excellence
Fielding errors can be costly, especially in tight games. The Braves must focus on strong defensive plays to minimize scoring opportunities for the Mets.
Historical Context and Fan Impact
The rivalry between the Braves and Mets transcends the field; it has a rich history filled with memorable moments that have shaped both franchises. The passionate fanbases of both teams fuel the intensity of these matchups.
- Fan Engagement: The atmosphere at Truist Park during this series is expected to be electric, with fans rallying behind their teams.
- Community Impact: Both teams have strong community ties, and these games often serve as a gathering point for local fans to celebrate their teams, regardless of the outcome.
Benefits of Winning This Series
A series win against the Mets would not just provide a boost in standings but also offer several other benefits:
- Confidence Boost: Winning against a rival can bolster team morale heading into the playoffs.
- Playoff Positioning: Securing wins now can provide a critical advantage in playoff seeding, influencing potential matchups in the postseason.
- Fan Engagement: Successful performances can enhance fan support, making the playoffs even more thrilling.
Case Studies: Past Showdowns
Looking back at past seasons, several critical games between the Braves and Mets have had significant playoff implications. In 2018, a late-season series resulted in a dramatic turnaround for the Braves, showcasing their ability to perform under pressure. Lessons from these past encounters can provide the Braves a blueprint for their current challenges.
First-Hand Experience: Players’ Perspectives
Players often discuss the importance of rivalries, especially in high-stakes situations. Veterans in the Braves’ locker room emphasize the need for focus and intensity:
“When you’re up against a team like the Mets, you know every pitch counts. It’s about maintaining composure and executing our game plan.” – Max Fried
Such insights highlight the mental aspect of competing in crucial games and the importance of maintaining a clear focus to achieve success.
Conclusion
As the Braves prepare for this critical showdown against the Mets, their playoff hopes hang in the balance. With strong performances from key players, effective strategies, and a supportive fanbase, the Braves have the potential to clinch a vital series victory. The time for action is now—every game, every pitch, and every moment counts as they strive to secure their place in the postseason.
