Betting on the NBA’s MVP award can seem overwhelming. You are tasked with selecting the most valuable player from approximately 450 individuals on NBA rosters. However, examining recent winners simplifies the process significantly. Using LeBron James in 2012 as a reference point, all recent MVPs share two notable traits: they were either First- or Second-Team All-NBA selections in the previous season, and they fell within the age range of 24 to 28 (using Basketball-Reference’s cutoff of Feb. 1 for the season age).
This narrows our focus to four potential candidates: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, and Jalen Brunson. While it’s clear that we won’t be entering the 2024-25 NBA season with just these four as MVP contenders, it illustrates the rigid nature of this award. Winning the MVP is rarely a surprise; it doesn’t come as a result of a last-ditch effort in a player’s prime. Rather, there’s a distinct trajectory for MVP winners, awarded to All-NBA players performing at the peak of their abilities.
How do we identify these players? We generally look for several key factors:
- Scoring is essential. This has become non-negotiable. Players like Steve Nash would not capture the award in today’s league. Since Kobe Bryant in 2008, every MVP winner has averaged at least 25 points per game, with the exception of Stephen Curry in 2015, who reached that mark on a per-minute basis but missed too many fourth quarters during blowouts to achieve this in totality. Notably, Nikola Jokic has averaged below 25 points per game only once in the last four seasons; that was during his non-MVP 2022-23 season.
- Winning used to hold more significance in determining the MVP, but the cases of Jokic and Russell Westbrook have shifted that slightly. Both faced unique circumstances: Westbrook achieved a statistical milestone that many deemed impossible (averaging a triple-double) shortly after Kevin Durant departed from his team. Jokic led a team missing its second- and third-best players into the playoffs. Absent similar situations, your best approach is typically to achieve victory. In the 21st century, 16 No. 1 seeds have won the MVP, along with five No. 2 seeds, two No. 3 seeds, and two No. 6 seeds.
- Availability has always been crucial for this award, even before the introduction of the 65-game minimum. Joel Embiid was the only winner to miss more than 11 games during the time when media members replaced players as voters. Among the MVPs of the 21st century, 18 out of 25 winners have played at least 75 games, or the equivalent during a shortened season.
- Voter fatigue manifests in two main ways. There is statistical evidence showing that voters tend to expect two-time winners to outperform their previous seasons. Additionally, there is substantial evidence suggesting that voters are hesitant to allow any player to win three consecutive MVPs. Since there isn’t a contender for a three-peat this year, that point is moot. Once a player has claimed the MVP twice, they don’t necessarily have to surpass their prior performance to contend for additional trophies.
- While difficult to quantify, I’ve come to believe—having lost money betting on Jayson Tatum for this award multiple times—that MVP winners typically possess a singular, elite skill. They are recognized as the best in the NBA at something significant or are very close to that distinction. Take a look at the last 20 MVPs: Steve Nash and Nikola Jokic were the top passers in the league when they earned their accolades. LeBron James also excelled in numerous areas, making him an exceptional player overall. Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant stood as the pinnacle of one-on-one scoring during their respective eras. James Harden presents a statistical case against Durant.
by the time he secured his victory, yet even if you believe he never eclipsed him, it was clear he stood out as the finest overall shot creator in the NBA at that time when considering his exceptional passing abilities. Stephen Curry held the title of the NBA’s premier shooter. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Russell Westbrook created the most pressure at the rim, perhaps second only to James. The players that are most challenging to quantify are Joel Embiid and Dirk Nowitzki. Embiid, at the very least, clinched the scoring title during his MVP season and was undoubtedly the top player at drawing fouls. Nowitzki ranked as the third-most efficient high-volume isolation scorer during his MVP campaign, trailing behind Kobe Bryant and Gilbert Arenas, yet he achieved this as a big man in the midst of only the sixth-ever 50-40-90 shooting season in NBA history. Thus, when you merge “third-best one-on-one scorer” with “best shooting big man up to that point,” it culminates in shooting and/or scoring being a logical elite skill. Although versatility is indeed valuable, this accolade isn’t designed for those who are merely jack-of-all-trades. Your value must primarily derive from one standout skill.
Now that we’ve clarified our criteria, let’s explore the top bets for preseason NBA MVP candidates.
The favorites
The candidates listed below possess odds of +1000 or shorter
We previously identified the two unchanging rules of recent MVP winners, and four players fit both criteria. Two among them are in this category, and indeed, I would recommend betting on both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+600) and Luka Doncic (+370), albeit through different approaches.
Gilgeous-Alexander is the player to consider betting on right now. The Thunder have a real opportunity to secure the No. 1 seed, and if they accomplish this, he will dominate the early MVP narrative. There is no need to be concerned about volatility. Gilgeous-Alexander has taken over Kawhi Leonard’s mantle as the NBA’s most consistent scorer. He reached over 40 points just twice last season but was held under 20 on only six occasions. Review last season’s statistics. If a performance averaging around 30 points, six assists, five rebounds, and two steals on the top team in the Western Conference seems MVP-worthy to you, then this is your ideal candidate, barring any unforeseen changes. That same season, he finished second, and as we will discuss shortly, last year’s winner does not appear as promising this time around.
Doncic will certainly play a role in the MVP discussion. However, it won’t emerge immediately. Doncic typically gains momentum as seasons advance, with the Mavericks’ 2022-23 lottery season being the significant exception. His scoring surged by more than four points per game after January 1 during the 2021-22 season. Last year, his performance was strikingly consistent on both sides of the holiday… but it’s essential to note that other players’ scoring declined in the latter part of the season due to the NBA reducing foul calls. The fact that Doncic’s production did not drop suggests he gained traction as the season wore on, a fact that his impressive postseason performance confirms. By the end of the season, the Mavericks are likely to be formidable, although they have obstacles to address. Although starting Klay Thompson would invigorate their offense, it may negatively affect the defense that was pivotal to their resurgence last season. They will need time to determine the optimal use of Thompson, Naji Marshall, and Quentin Grimes, who are stepping in for Tim Hardaway Jr., Derrick Jones Jr., and Josh Green, respectively. My recommendation is to allow Dallas a month to sort through these issues.
As we advance towards Thanksgiving or early December, let’s allow a different favorite to emerge and secure more favorable odds for Doncic. I anticipate that these will be the two players who dominate the race. I feel quite assured that either Gilgeous-Alexander or Doncic will clinch this award, akin to selecting two players from a pool of 450 for the league’s most esteemed individual honor.
The other three contenders are the most recent winners of this accolade. However, history indicates that their time may have passed. Nikola Jokic (+425), Joel Embiid (+700), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+850) still maintain strong claims for the title of “best player in the NBA”. Each could just as easily lift the Bill Russell Finals MVP trophy come June. Yet, this season marks Jokic’s age-29 year, while both Antetokounmpo and Embiid are in their age-30 season. They have moved past the 24-28 age range that has significantly influenced voter decisions for the past decade or so.
Of course, this doesn’t mean they are out of contention. However, it reinforces what we’ve observed on the court in recent years. On average, Embiid has missed 23.4 games per season over the last five years. Antetokounmpo’s average stands at a more manageable 12.8 games, but let’s not forget that he has faced injuries during the last two postseasons. Had the 2019-20 season not been interrupted due to COVID-19, he likely would have endured significant time off in March and April due to an injury sustained just before the league shut down. Both players are still in their prime in terms of peak performance. However, they are also at a juncture in their careers where pursuing MVP awards may no longer be their priority. Ensuring their health through May and June is what truly matters. There’s a possibility that they could miss the 65-game threshold. Even if they reach it, how many minutes will they log? How hard will they compete for top playoff seeding? Consider all the post-MVP seasons when LeBron James remained clearly the NBA’s best player but failed to earn the accolades that should have reflected his performance. Antetokounmpo and Embiid are at a similar stage: still exceptional, yet perhaps less impactful over a full 82-game regular season.
Jokic presents a more intriguing situation. He rarely gets injured and has won this award three times in the past four seasons. He often excels in advanced metrics, and a specific segment of voters tends to favor him based on those numbers. However, virtually everything that occurred with the Nuggets since the end of the regular season has jeopardized his chances for a fourth trophy. They experienced a significant seeding push late in the season, which they publicly lamented. Furthermore, they lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope without any compensation. They made a considerable investment in a backup center by granting Dario Saric the taxpayer mid-level exception. Additionally, signing Russell Westbrook affected their offensive spacing. If Jokic manages to rise above these challenges, he could very well reclaim the MVP title. However, it seems more likely that the Nuggets will face a regression during the regular season. Without the notable absences of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to justify it, Jokic may lose some appeal among voters. Even if you believe Jokic’s individual brilliance outweighs these factors, you are still getting odds for a favorite. It’s seldom that one needs to lock in +425 on anyone at this early stage. Is there anything that could dramatically alter those odds in the first month of the season? I would prefer to wait until November to gain a clearer picture of Jokic’s team dynamics rather than invest prematurely in a favorite I don’t see winning.
The Middle of the Pack
The following candidates fall within odds between +1000 and +2500
In this section, we have only four candidates to discuss, and I must admit that I am not particularly interested in any of them. Let’s be clear: I wouldn’t place a bet on Victor Wembanyama (+2000) due to his team’s lack of caliber. Even if he were to emerge as the best player in the NBA this season, his team may not even be capable of competing for a Play-In spot. You do not secure an MVP award by merely elevating a 35-win team to 45 wins.
Wembanyama has numerous opportunities to contend for this award. However, I am not convinced just yet.
Jayson Tatum (+2500) does not meet the signature-skill criteria. His strength stems from his well-rounded abilities. Tatum excels in nearly all facets of the game; however, he has yet to be named to an All-Defense team and has never averaged five assists or nine rebounds in a season. His three-point shooting has remained between 35% and 39% over the last four years, and he’s never ranked among the top five scorers in any season. Additionally, he shares the court with Jaylen Brown, who, by certain metrics, mirrors his skill set but with slightly less impact—both players are proficient across the board but lack that standout quality that typically defines league leaders. Such players are immensely valuable in playoff scenarios, especially since Boston is the reigning champion. Nevertheless, they do not typically secure MVP titles. Tatum may also face a challenge because of his team’s recent success. The Celtics achieved 64 wins last season, so if they only reach 59 this year, what would otherwise be deemed an outstanding season may be viewed less favorably. Tatum’s name will appear on MVP ballots, having finished in the top six for the past three seasons. Still, he’s never cracked the top three due to his absence of a singular, elite skill that candidates typically display.
Anthony Edwards (+1400) may possess that premium skill, yet he currently lacks the stage to showcase it fully. He might be the NBA’s most dynamic athlete right now, but he plays on a two-big roster, alongside a small forward in Jaden McDaniels, who struggles with his jump shot. Despite this challenge, he manages to make the best of it, proving that one can indeed win MVP as the primary creator for a strong defensive unit. The recently retired Derrick Rose serves as a model for Edwards in this context. Nevertheless, such MVPs remain uncommon. Last season, the Timberwolves ranked 17th in offensive efficiency, and given that MVPs are mainly rewarded for offensive prowess, they face an uphill battle. The only MVP since Rose who did not play for a top-10 offense was Westbrook, and Edwards is not expected to post triple-double numbers. As such, his statistics might not stack up against the leading contenders.
If I had to choose one from this group, it would be Jalen Brunson (+1800), but he doesn’t excite me much either. One could argue that Brunson’s scoring might qualify as a signature skill, as he finished fifth in the NBA for points per game last season and climbed to second place from February 1 onward. However, this coincided with Julius Randle’s absence due to injury. With Randle returning and Mikal Bridges also taking a significant share of shots, there are now additional scoring options. From a more optimistic viewpoint, one could contend that Mitchell Robinson’s absence might lead the Knicks to adopt smaller, more spacing-friendly lineups that could potentially enhance Brunson’s statistics. I, however, align with a more pessimistic take. The Knicks’ offensive strategy has traditionally revolved around strong rebounding, and Brunson has lost a key pick-and-roll partner in Isaiah Hartenstein, who played an understated yet crucial role. Although the Knicks can find ways to address their center deficiencies collectively, I don’t believe this benefits Brunson’s MVP candidacy. Furthermore, his minimal contribution on defense detracts from his argument.
The long shots
The following candidates have odds greater than +2500
At this point, we are not discussing baselines; instead, we are considering ideal circumstances. Two candidates stand out under such evaluations: Ja Morant (+3500) and Zion Williamson (+10000). However, injuries could sideline either player. Morant faces potential off-court issues, and the Western Conference’s competitiveness could lead either player to end up on a play-in team. Nevertheless, let’s focus on the best-case scenarios:
- We are aware that the Grizzlies have the ability to perform at an elite level during the regular season, as evidenced by their No. 2 seed in the playoffs for both 2022 and 2023. Therefore, it’s not unreasonable to anticipate a return to that level. Additionally, we can reasonably assert that the Pelicans possess similar potential, having achieved the NBA’s third-best net rating during the phase between C.J. McCollum’s return and Brandon Ingram’s injury last year. The Grizzlies are currently depending on rookie center Zach Edey, while the Pelicans seem to lack a consistent center option altogether. Will it be Daniel Theis? It remains a significant uncertainty for them. However, the foundation of a successful team is present…
- Both players demonstrate exceptional signature skills. They have each led the NBA in points scored in the paint during a complete season. Their hallmark ability is rim pressure, similar to what Westbrook showcased.
- This marks the age-24 season for Williamson and the age-25 season for Morant. If we consider last year a setback for Morant, this is the first season where both players find themselves in the historically optimal MVP age window.
- Each has maintained an average of 25 points per game over several seasons, making it reasonable to expect them to meet the scoring benchmark.
- Individual Performance: Statistics like points, rebounds, assists, steals, and shooting percentage are critical.
- Team Success: Players from winning teams often receive more recognition, making team performance a major factor.
- Media Narrative: Storylines and media coverage can sway voter opinions significantly.
- Historical Trends: Past MVP winners often set patterns that current players can follow.
- Increased Engagement: Following the MVP race can enhance your viewing experience, giving you a vested interest in the outcomes of games.
- Potential for Profit: If you can identify value early in the season, you could maximize your betting returns as the odds shift.
- Predictive Analysis: Analyzing player performance and team dynamics can sharpen your analytical skills, benefiting other betting areas.
- Research Player Form: Keep an eye on player injuries, trades, and overall performance.
- Follow Team Performance: A player on a struggling team may be less likely to win the MVP.
- Monitor Betting Markets: Watch how odds fluctuate and look for opportunities in value betting.
- Consider Historical Trends: Understand how past MVP winners have performed to identify patterns.
- LeBron James’ Dominance: James won the MVP four times, showcasing that sustained excellence, both individually and teamwise, solidifies a player’s MVP status.
- Emergence of New Stars: Younger players like Giannis and Luka have disrupted traditional voting patterns, indicating a shift in how MVP contenders are evaluated.
- Betting early in the season can yield higher odds, but it’s essential to stay informed about player and team performance.
- Many experts recommend having a diversified betting strategy rather than putting all funds on one player early in the season.
If you prefer betting on a single candidate, Morant and Williamson may not be the right choices for you. These are portfolio investments since they serve as long shots with genuine potential for payoff. Their odds reflect this reality, and if you subscribe to the notion that narratives influence votes, it’s easy to envision a storyline that could propel either of these players to victory.
How compelling is the narrative of “Ja Morant finally figured it out”? Isn’t that precisely the type of story that media voters are eager to tell? Picture him showcasing a 10% improvement in scoring and assists, along with several sincere interviews where he acknowledges past errors and commits to assuming his responsibilities as the Grizzlies’ figurehead. The opportunities are apparent and highly plausible.
While a storyline surrounding Williamson might not be as straightforward, every “here comes the phenom” tale carries its own allure. It may be overlooked now, but Williamson entered the league with hype nearly comparable to Wembanyama’s. His less-than-stellar career thus far has been impacted by injuries, his supporting cast, and his physical condition. Although New Orleans’ lack of a center may introduce certain challenges, it will also provide more space for Williamson to operate. If he excels in defending against centers, recognition will follow. Should this scenario unfold, expect a flurry of “we gave up on him too quickly” narratives.
These two long shots are essential considerations when constructing a comprehensive betting portfolio. The only other name on my radar is Tyrese Haliburton (+10000). We witnessed a best-case scenario from him last November and December. Prior to his injury in January, he was averaging just under 56 points of combined offense per game, factoring in his assist contributions. In my quarter-season awards picks last December, Haliburton ranked third, trailing only Jokic and Embiid, who, as previously discussed, are less formidable contenders this year. The promising scenario involves a now-healthy Haliburton resuming his form from before his injury, coupled with the Pacers improving on both fronts due to the addition of Pascal Siakam and the development of their younger players. In my opinion, he clearly ranks third among this group but could still warrant a small wager.
As for the seasoned veterans, I’m not placing any bets on LeBron James, Kevin Durant, or Stephen Curry to participate in 65 games or achieve enough victories to legitimately contest for the award. Apart from these three and possibly Anthony Davis, there isn’t anyone else who appears capable of winning this award unless an unforeseen improvement occurs. As noted back in the introduction, the pool of realistic MVP candidates each season is limited. It’s incredibly challenging to rank among the top players in the league, and those who achieve this status rarely do so overnight. Currently, we have a clear picture of the field, and these candidates emerge as the most logical options.
Betting on NBA MVP: Analyzing the Top Contenders for the 2024-25 Season
Understanding the NBA MVP Award
The NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball. It recognizes the player who has had the greatest impact on their team’s success during the regular season. As fans and bettors gear up for the 2024-25 NBA season, understanding the criteria and trends for MVP voting can help in making informed betting decisions.
Key Factors Influencing MVP Voting
Top Contenders for the 2024-25 NBA MVP Award
| Player | Team | 2023-24 Stats | 2024-25 MVP Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks | 30.1 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 5.7 APG | +400 |
| Jokic Nikola | Denver Nuggets | 26.1 PPG, 13.8 RPG, 8.0 APG | +500 |
| Joel Embiid | Philadelphia 76ers | 33.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 4.9 APG | +600 |
| Luka Dončić | Dallas Mavericks | 29.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 8.4 APG | +700 |
| Kevin Durant | Phoenix Suns | 28.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 5.1 APG | +800 |
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis, the “Greek Freak,” is a perennial MVP candidate. His combination of size, speed, and skill allows him to dominate on both ends of the court. With the Bucks’ strong roster, he is poised for another spectacular season. His past MVPs and the Bucks’ recent success make him a favorite.
2. Nikola Jokic
The reigning MVP is always a threat. Jokic’s unique passing ability as a center, combined with his scoring and rebounding, makes him invaluable. The Nuggets are expected to be a top contender in the West, further boosting his MVP prospects.
3. Joel Embiid
Embiid’s offensive prowess and defensive capabilities make him one of the league’s most lethal weapons. If the 76ers can maintain their position as an Eastern Conference powerhouse, Embiid’s stats and impact would make him a strong MVP candidate.
4. Luka Dončić
At only 24 years old, Luka is already among the best players in the NBA. His ability to fill the stat sheet and lead the Mavericks makes him a perennial MVP contender. If Dallas performs well this season, expect Luka’s name to be at the top of the MVP conversation.
5. Kevin Durant
Durant is not only one of the most talented scorers in NBA history but also a pivotal player for the Suns. If he can stay healthy and lead Phoenix to a top seed, his MVP odds will significantly increase.
Benefits of Betting on MVP Odds
Betting on NBA MVP odds can be a thrilling way to engage with the season. Here are some benefits:
Practical Tips for Betting on MVP Odds
Case Studies: Historical MVP Trends
Examining past MVP winners can provide valuable insights. Here are a couple of trends:
First-Hand Experience: Betting Insights from Experts
Many sports analysts and commentators have shared their experiences regarding MVP betting. Here are some insights:
Conclusion
As the NBA 2024-25 season approaches, the race for the MVP award heats up. By understanding the top contenders and factors influencing MVP voting, bettors can make informed decisions. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a newcomer, following the NBA MVP race can add excitement and depth to your basketball viewing experience.
