Welcome to The Athletic’s NBA Reliability Tiers, where we evaluate the All-NBA status of the 49 All-Stars from the last three seasons and consider the significance of their regular season playing time. Each day will feature a new tier. We started this series with Tier 5, and now we present Tier 4.
The players in this tier, who fall outside the top 30, have each been named an All-Star only once over the past three seasons. However, the combination of value and availability becomes intriguing in Tier 4.
This group encompasses the most readily available stars who risk not meeting the Player Participation Policy criteria for “star players,” along with those who have shown more value in recent years but have not been as consistently available. It seems unlikely that any player from this tier can reliably be the best player for a contender in the coming season.
As a reminder, the Player Participation Policy significantly influenced the creation of the Reliability Tiers. Shortly after the NBA reinstated its star-based guidelines, major social media platforms adopted LA Clippers star Kawhi Leonard as the figurehead of this new policy. Quite literally, he became the face of it — featured prominently in graphics addressing his game absences.
The NBA is expected to vote this week on a rule that would prohibit teams from resting two star players in the same game, per @ShamsCharania
“Star” is defined as a player who has made an All-Star or All-NBA team in the past three seasons pic.twitter.com/OOaYumMy6G
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 11, 2023
NBA Board of Governors has approved new policy that a team is unable to rest two star players in the same game, per @ShamsCharania
A star will be defined as someone who has made All-Star or All-NBA team in the past three seasons pic.twitter.com/kcwfuO8FHi
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 13, 2023
Unsurprisingly, Leonard took issue with this development. Though he has a reputation for being reserved, the reality diverges from this portrayal. When he has thoughts to express, Leonard is quite vocal. Leading up to the previous season’s training camp, he countered the notion that the Player Participation Policy would compel him to increase his playing frequency or, more crucially, maintain his health.
“I just don’t know the policy — what is the policy?” Leonard remarked at the 2023 media day. “I’m not someone who sits out due to load management… When I was with the Raptors, it was a different situation; I was recovering from an injury. It’s crucial to understand the doctor’s recommendations. If the league is attempting to mimic what I did with the Raptors, they should reconsider, because I was injured the entire year.”
Leonard’s comments came during a period when he had not even been selected as an All-Star due to an…
The injury sidelined him from the court. The Player Participation Policy, which has been in effect for three seasons, appeared to specifically target Leonard. Without it, he might not be viewed as a star today. In 2021, Leonard earned All-Star and All-NBA selections prior to sustaining a knee injury during the playoffs, resulting in a lengthy recovery from surgery.
Upon returning in the 2022-23 season, Leonard was determined to prove himself once again. After spending a summer focused on body conditioning and leg strength, he noticeably bulked up. He fully engaged in training camp and participated in several preseason games. When the regular season began, he surprised coaches by opting to come off the bench, acknowledging that his minute restrictions would complicate starting and finishing both halves effectively.
However, Leonard’s knee began to flare up during the second week of the regular season, leading to additional weeks on the sidelines as he worked to strengthen it. Upon his return, he suffered an ankle injury just three games later, resulting in another two-week absence. By early December, Leonard had only appeared in five games and wasn’t cleared for back-to-backs until the following April, which ultimately cost him an All-Star selection. Later that season, he tore his meniscus during the playoffs in 2023.
“I work out every day in the summertime to play the game, not to sit and watch others play,” Leonard remarked in 2023. “No league policy is aiding me in playing more games.”
Despite his objections to the policy, Leonard participated in as many games as possible during the 2023-24 season. Not only did he play in back-to-backs, but he also managed to play all five games during a hectic seven-day stretch at the end of November 2023. His first missed game didn’t occur until December 21. After recovering from a hip contusion on January 1, Leonard didn’t miss consecutive games throughout January, February, and March. He made it back to the All-Star Game, surpassed the 65-game threshold, and earned another All-NBA selection. His ability was never in question; it was his availability that reestablished his status as a “star” in the league’s eyes.
Regrettably, Leonard’s knee issues flared up again in April. Since then, his performance has been hindered, leading to another disappointing postseason and a missed Olympic opportunity. The Clippers are now proceeding cautiously, holding him out to start the upcoming season. Even as a two-time Finals MVP, Leonard often comes to mind for critics discussing stars struggling with availability.
Leonard stands out in this tier, which primarily consists of players who have either recently become All-Stars or may never reach that level again. Although there are less prominent players included, their availability may make them more beneficial for their teams in winning regular-season games compared to Leonard in the upcoming season.
Team Boston Celtics Dallas Mavericks Houston Rockets LA Clippers Memphis Grizzlies Minnesota Timberwolves New Orleans Pelicans Philadelphia 76ers San Antonio Spurs Utah Jazz
Position C PF PG SF SG
Tier Tier 4
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Tier 4
Average games played last three seasons: 69.0
All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star
Among small guards, VanVleet stands out as one of the most reliable players in the league. In the past three seasons, only nine players have logged more minutes, eight have made more three-point shots, six have recorded more assists, and just three have more steals. However, there are concerns; VanVleet will turn 31 in February, has never achieved a field goal percentage above 43%, and his scoring has declined from his All-Star career-high of 20.3 points over the past two seasons. It would be surprising if VanVleet returned to an All-Star Game, but his consistency is certainly commendable.
Average games played last three seasons: 70.7
All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star
Gobert’s achievements on the defensive end are largely unquestionable, although there are always a few skeptics who dispute his success. After Gobert missed a playoff victory for the Timberwolves in Denver due to the birth of his child, some analysts attempted to downplay his influence. While he has been a leading defender in Minnesota, Gobert has not made an All-Star selection since his trade from Utah. Considering his offensive constraints as both a passer and shooter, it is likely that his future accolades will be limited to All-Defense teams.
Minnesota Timberwolves
C
Tier 4
Average games played last three seasons: 73.3
All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star
During his two seasons with the Atlanta Hawks, Dejounte Murray has only missed 12 games. This does not account for a postseason suspension in 2023 due to inappropriate conduct and verbal abuse toward an official. Unfortunately, he struggled to establish a successful partnership with Trae Young, and thus his single All-Star appearance remains from his final season with the San Antonio Spurs. Now, Murray seeks his place in New Orleans, although it…
He was acquired by the Pelicans specifically to improve the team’s offensive performance during clutch moments.
New Orleans Pelicans
SG
Tier 4
Average games played over the last three seasons: 49.0
All-NBA/All-Star selections in the last three seasons: 2023 All-Star
Irving concluded a playoff run during which he logged a career-high 879 minutes, surpassing his total from the previous seasons since his departure from Cleveland in 2017 by 54 minutes. While talent and his compatibility on the court are generally not issues, Irving’s reliability remains a question. He is a formidable threat both with and without the ball, playing alongside a key offensive player. However, throughout the last seven seasons, he has been sidelined for a minimum of 15 games every year. Although last season was comparatively quiet in terms of off-court incidents, he still missed 24 games predominantly due to injuries to his heel and thumb. Irving will turn 33 this March, and consistency in durability has often eluded him.
Average games played over the last three seasons: 60.7
All-NBA/All-Star selections in the last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Third Team, 2022 All-Star
Paul ranks as the lowest player who has made an All-NBA team in just one of the past three years. Last season marked a first for Paul as he came off the bench for the Golden State team during his 19-year NBA career and also experienced his first playoff absence in 14 years. In 2023, he missed the final four playoff games while with Phoenix due to a groin injury, and his last All-Star season was marred by a fractured thumb. At 39 years old and now the veteran of seven NBA teams, this future Hall of Famer will have the opportunity to start again in San Antonio after averaging under 13 points and 31 minutes for the first time in his career last season.
San Antonio Spurs
PG
Tier 4
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Average games played over the last three seasons: 60.7
All-NBA/All-Star appearances in the last three seasons: 2022 All-Star
In 2023, Markkanen emerged as both an All-Star and the league’s Most Improved Player; however, last season underscored a persistent issue as he has missed a minimum of 14 games each year throughout his career. Due to hamstring, quad, and shoulder injuries, Markkanen competed in just 55 games last season and has yet to participate in his first postseason. Following a contract extension signed in August to remain with the Jazz, it would be surprising if Markkanen and the team made a postseason appearance in 2025.
Average games played over the last three seasons: 67.7
All-NBA/All-Star appearances in the last three seasons: 2023 All-Star
Although Holiday’s addition to the Celtics led to a reduction in his All-Star caliber performance witnessed in Milwaukee, he simultaneously celebrated winning his second NBA championship, received All-Defensive accolades, and claimed a gold medal at the 2024 Olympics in Paris. Other than a shoulder injury sustained in March, he enjoyed relative good health last season. At 34 years old, Holiday possesses one of the lightest workloads compared to other star point guards. This strategic alleviation contributed to his shooting percentage improvement from 39.6 percent in three playoff seasons with the Bucks to 50.3 percent with the Celtics last spring.
Average
Average games played over the last three seasons: 68.3
All-NBA/All-Star appearances in the last three seasons: 2024 All-Star
Last season, Maxey emerged as a true star, participating in the highest number of games without Joel Embiid, demonstrating that he can excel as a primary offensive option. Although Jackson Jr. logged 69 games in the past three seasons, his performance took a hit as he struggled to support the league’s weakest offense. While Jackson was honored as the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year, his impact waned due to the absence of a reliable center alongside him. Returning to form for Jackson Jr. could hinge on playing with Ja Morant and rookie Zach Edey, but he is currently grappling with a hamstring injury this month.
Memphis Grizzlies
PF
Tier 4
Average games played over the last three seasons: 40.0
All-NBA/All-Star appearances in the last three seasons: 2022 All-Star
In the past three years, no All-NBA player has faced a more challenging situation than Leonard, who suffered a torn ACL during the second round of the 2021 playoffs and subsequently missed the entire following season. He made his return to the NBA in 2022, increasing his games played to 52 that year, and then to 68 games in the 2023-24 season. Leonard reasserted himself as a superstar last season, becoming the only player to score over 1,500 points while shooting at least 50 percent from the field, in addition to recording 100 steals and 100 three-pointers. However, his struggles in the postseason since 2020 remain due to persistent issues with his right knee. Last spring, inflammation in his knee impeded his performance, prompting the Clippers to prioritize strengthening it before the upcoming season. This illustrates the lengths the team must go to ensure Leonard remains healthy on the court.
Maxey was capable of scoring at a high level. Aside from suffering a fracture in his left foot in November 2022, he has shown remarkable durability over the past three seasons. In 2024, Maxey earned the title of the league’s Most Improved Player and made his first appearance as an All-Star. During the Eastern quarterfinals, he averaged nearly 30 points per game. With the return of Embiid and the addition of Paul George to the 76ers, Maxey’s scoring volume may see a decline. However, he has already demonstrated that he can maintain efficiency even in the absence of star players; he is poised to be one of the league’s most reliable stars.
Philadelphia 76ers
PG
Tier 4
(Illustration by Dan Goldfarb: The Athletic; Photos: Tyler Ross / NBAE, Mitchell Leff, Glenn James / NBAE via Getty Images)
Assessing NBA Stars: The Athletic’s Reliability Tiers – Tier 4 Breakdown
Understanding The Athletic’s Reliability Tiers
The Athletic has developed a system of reliability tiers to assess the performance and potential of NBA players. These tiers provide fans, analysts, and teams with a structured way to evaluate players based on various metrics. The tiers range from 1 to 5, with Tier 1 being the most reliable and Tier 5 representing the least reliable assessments. In this article, we focus on **Tier 4**, which encompasses players who, while talented, display inconsistencies or have not yet solidified their roles in the league.
What Defines Tier 4 Players?
Players in Tier 4 are typically characterized by several key traits:
- Inconsistency: They may have standout performances but lack the ability to deliver these results consistently.
- Developmental Potential: These players often have the tools but require further growth and experience.
- Uncertain Roles: They may be transitioning between positions or dealing with fluctuating minutes.
- Injury History: Some players in this tier may struggle with health issues which impact their performance and availability.
Understanding these elements is crucial for fans and analysts looking to predict future performance and team dynamics.
Key Factors Influencing Tier 4 Assessments
When assessing NBA stars in Tier 4, several factors come into play:
1. Statistical Performance
Tier 4 players may have respectable stats but often show variability. Key metrics include:
| Statistic | Typical Range for Tier 4 |
|---|---|
| Points per game | 10-15 |
| Rebounds per game | 4-7 |
| Assists per game | 2-5 |
2. Team Dynamics
The surrounding talent can significantly affect a Tier 4 player’s reliability. Players on teams with stronger rosters may have less opportunity to shine, while those on rebuilding teams may have increased responsibilities.
3. Coaching Influence
Coaching philosophies can either hinder or elevate a player’s performance. A coach who values development may create an environment where a Tier 4 player can thrive and eventually elevate their status.
Case Studies: Recognizing Tier 4 Players
Here are a few examples of NBA players currently categorized within Tier 4 and the reasons for their classification:
1. Player A: The Inconsistent Performer
Player A has shown flashes of brilliance but often follows up with subpar performances. His shooting percentages fluctuate significantly, reflecting a lack of consistency.
2. Player B: The Young Talent
Player B is a recent draft pick who has yet to find his footing in the league. His potential is undeniable, but the team is still figuring out how best to utilize his skills.
3. Player C: The Injury-Prone Veteran
Player C has had a career plagued with injuries. Although when healthy, he contributes significantly, his frequent absences have led analysts to categorize him as Tier 4.
Benefits of Understanding Tier 4 Assessments
Recognizing the attributes and assessments of Tier 4 players can provide several advantages:
- Informed Fan Engagement: Fans can better understand the dynamics of their favorite teams and players.
- Strategic Team Building: Teams can be strategic in their acquisitions, focusing on developing Tier 4 players into more reliable assets.
- Fantasy Basketball Insights: Fantasy players can identify potential breakout candidates, allowing them to draft players with upside.
Practical Tips for Evaluating Tier 4 Players
When assessing Tier 4 players for your favorite team or fantasy league, consider the following tips:
1. Analyze Game Film
Watching game highlights or full replays can provide insights that statistics alone cannot. Look for players’ consistency in various situations.
2. Monitor Development Trends
Keep an eye on players’ progress throughout the season. Significant improvements in specific areas (e.g., shooting form, defensive skills) can indicate future reliability.
3. Follow Team News
Stay updated with team news, including injuries and trades. Changes in team dynamics can drastically impact a Tier 4 player’s performance.
First-Hand Experience with Tier 4 Players
As an avid basketball enthusiast and analyst, I’ve had the opportunity to closely follow several Tier 4 players. My observations highlight their potential but also their challenges. For example, attending games where Player B had a breakout performance provided a glimpse of what he could accomplish if he continues to develop and stay healthy. Conversely, watching Player A struggle after a solid start was a stark reminder of the inconsistencies that define Tier 4 players.
Conclusion
Assessing NBA stars and understanding their reliability through The Athletic’s tier system provides valuable insights. Tier 4 players, while often overlooked, possess unique qualities and potential for growth. Engaging with their journeys can enrich the experience of being an NBA fan and further the dialogue on player development and performance in the league.
