A hidden truth regarding NBA offense in recent years is that it has made continuous improvements. The Boston Celtics for the 2023-24 season recorded the most efficient offense in NBA history, scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions. They surpassed the previous record of 118.6 points set by the 2022-23 Sacramento Kings, which itself had surpassed another record established by the Brooklyn Nets in 2020-21 with 117.3 points, and the 2019-20 Dallas Mavericks, who had a record of 115.9 points. The progress of NBA offense has been so significant that the top offense from ten years ago, the 2014-15 Los Angeles Clippers, would have ranked 25th last season if they had maintained their scoring average of 111.6 points per 100 possessions. Prior to last February, scoring in the NBA had become increasingly easier, with no visible decline in sight.
Before the All-Star break, the average offensive rating for teams, according to NBA.com data, was slightly over 115.2. However, afterward, it dropped nearly two full points, settling just below 113.3. Although this decrease may seem trivial, it signifies a major historical anomaly. Basketball-Reference tracks the league’s annual offensive ratings, noting that such a significant decline has not occurred from one season to the next since the 2011-12 season, which was an outlier due to the lockout. The last comparable instance in a non-lockout season happened during the 1982-83 campaign. While scoring typically experiences large increases, a decline is quite uncommon, and we have all observed firsthand the reasons behind it.
The rules underwent changes. Defenses were permitted to play more aggressively. Fewer fouls were called, leading to a decline in free-throw rates. Consequently, players who relied heavily on free throws had to adapt their styles of play swiftly. This shift appears to be our new reality, and as we approach the season, these changes must be considered in evaluating the offensive capabilities of all 30 teams in the league.
Let’s proceed to rank these offenses heading into the season. Note that these rankings do not represent an assessment of optimized offensive quality. Some teams may perform better or worse in the postseason, and certain teams may be better equipped to manage injuries. Here, we aim to project which offenses are likely to rank among the top in terms of points scored per 100 possessions by the conclusion of the regular season in April, taking into account current roster information and the recent rule adjustments.
1. Dallas Mavericks
2023-24 offensive rating: 117 (points per 100 possessions)
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 8
The Mavericks of last year found their stride following trades that repaired a problematic defense. This season’s roster, featuring Klay Thompson in place of Derrick Jones Jr. in the starting lineup, will shift its focus more toward offense. Fortunately, they are poised to excel on that front. The strategy is simple. Dallas boasts the best pick-and-roll creator in the NBA, Luka Doncic. The remaining four starters complement each other perfectly. Kyrie Irving stands among the NBA’s top secondary creators, while Klay Thompson is recognized as one of the best movement shooters. Dereck Lively is a formidable rim-runner and an underappreciated short-roll playmaker, and P.J. Washington is versatile in his contributions. The bench could help mitigate any defensive shortcomings, with Jaden Hardy appearing ready to contribute significant scoring off the bench during the postseason. Dallas might eventually opt for a defensively-oriented lineup by substituting Naji Marshall for Thompson, but presently, this offense is set to be exceptional. Doncic was one of the rare superstars whose performance actually improved after last season’s rule changes, and his offensive support has taken another leap forward.
2.
Boston Celtics
2023-24 offensive rating: 122.2
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 1
If Kristaps Porzingis were healthy at the start of the season, the Celtics would hold the top ranking. Unfortunately, he is not, which allows Dallas to gain a slight upper hand and claim the top spot. While Boston may not possess the same range of offensive skills as Dallas, they more than compensate with their exceptional shooting ability. Last season, they led the NBA by a significant margin in 3-point attempts and came very close to leading in shooting percentage as well. Interestingly, the offense was somewhat more efficient with Porzingis sidelined, but even if the Celtics excel with their other five core players on the court, the reality of an NBA season is that injuries are inevitable. The absence of Porzingis to cushion those setbacks is felt deeply.
2023-24 offensive rating: 117.3
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 7
This season, New York’s offensive approach is set to diverge from past strategies. Under Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks have yet to record a top-10 offense based on half-court points per play, but they have achieved back-to-back top-seven finishes thanks to their strong performance on the offensive boards. Historically, these teams featured two big men, but this year’s squad will rely solely on Karl-Anthony Towns until Mitchell Robinson returns mid-season. The shift away from size will be compensated by an increase in shooting efficiency. Towns is a far more impactful offensive player at center than at power forward; this is primarily because the average shooting at center is considerably lower than at power forward. The Knicks benefit from adding an elite shooter in a position typically lacking in shooting talent, and Towns brings even more to the table. As a pick-and-roll powerhouse, he was underutilized in Minnesota, but with Jalen Brunson and a range of wings capable of stretching the floor, his potential will be fully realized. For those who worry about offensive rebounding, there’s no need for concern. Josh Hart is still a key player, and he will continue to grab plenty of boards. Good luck trying to box him out with so much shooting on display.
2023-24 offensive rating: 120.5
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 2
During the first few months of the previous season, the Pacers were setting offensive records at an astonishing rate. Forget about efficiency; they appeared poised to break the total points per game record while competing in a generally slower-paced era. Tyrese Haliburton was on track to surpass the tracking era’s record for most combined points and assists created. While the names may not shine as brightly as some other teams, the Pacers showcase better team offense than nearly anyone in the NBA, and they were accomplishing all of this even before adding Pascal Siakam. So, why are they ranked No. 4 instead of No. 1? Several factors come into play. First, Tyrese Haliburton sustained an injury in January, causing the Pacers to struggle. His injury history is significant enough to raise concerns. Furthermore, we have yet to see Haliburton perform at full strength against more physical defenses. Are the current rules conducive to the fast-paced play that he thrives on? Time will tell. The Pacers are poised to have a strong offensive season; the question remains: how strong?
2023-24 offensive rating: 118.3
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 3
Oklahoma City’s offensive strategy last year was deceptively straightforward. They achieved success through various creative methods, with the fundamental concept being to allow Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to create advantages near the basket to enable easy 3-point shots. This plan will largely continue this season, albeit with certain adjustments. The Thunder exchanged a significant amount of secondary creation from Josh Giddey for players who offer different abilities, which may prove more valuable but do not fill that gap for secondary creation. Alex Caruso’s passing is crucial for maintaining connections on the court, while Isaiah Hartenstein’s near-unblockable floaters serve as a dangerous late-clock option. The main concern here lies in how effectively they can generate shot opportunities when Gilgeous-Alexander is not orchestrating plays.
Alexander isn’t present on the floor, but the good news for the Thunder is their youthful roster and ample assets provide them with numerous practical solutions to this dilemma.
2023-24 offensive rating: 113
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 14
For four consecutive years, the 76ers have ranked among the top three in scoring during Joel Embiid’s time on the court. Philadelphia consistently finds a way to put up points when he’s on the floor. Two pressing questions emerge: a) how frequently will Embiid play? and b) what occurs when he is unavailable? While the first question cannot be answered definitively, last season was somewhat of an anomaly. He was sidelined for 43 games; however, over the previous four years, he averaged about 18 absences. Assuming Philadelphia will take greater care in his management this season—which appears to be a reasonable expectation considering last season’s challenges and Embiid’s already secured MVP award—it’s fair to speculate that, barring an unexpected injury, he’s more likely to miss around 20 games rather than 40 this year. As for the impact of his absence? The answer is more straightforward: the 76ers now boast three stars instead of two. The presence of Paul George and Tyrese Maxey will significantly aid the team. George (currently dealing with his own injury troubles) and James Harden bring different styles to the court, yet it’s notable that Philadelphia’s lineups featuring Harden and Maxey without Embiid had strong offensive success. The overlap between George and Maxey is much less pronounced. Ultimately, this ranking largely relies on Embiid’s availability. Even with a standard amount of missed games, the 76ers should still perform admirably.
2023-24 offensive rating: 117.6
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 6
The Bucks represent one of the more challenging teams to rank at the top of the list. Despite all the upheaval, awkwardness in pick-and-roll combinations, and various issues faced last season, the Bucks proved nearly unstoppable when Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo shared the floor. There’s a perspective suggesting that a year of experience, a complete training camp with Doc Rivers, and productive summer moves should propel the Bucks into the top five. However, there are several concerns. Firstly, the Bucks abandoned offensive rebounding last season with both Rivers and Adrian Griffin. This has been a long-standing tendency of Rivers, and it’s unlikely to change now. While this approach may enhance defense, it detracts from offensive capabilities. More critically, the removal of either Lillard or Antetokounmpo from the game renders the 2024 Bucks significantly more manageable. This reality isn’t surprising, as the roster lacks depth and features aging players. Khris Middleton has missed nearly 50% of the last two seasons, and Brook Lopez is already 36. Even Lillard may soon find it difficult to evade the effects of aging; at 34, he is vulnerable. If the core players were just a year or two younger, the Bucks might have secured a top-five offensive ranking. As it stands, they fall short of that mark.
2023-24 offensive rating: 116.8
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 10
This ranking for Phoenix strikes a balance. The potential for injury is significant enough that the Suns could end up with a subpar offensive rating, yet their talent levels are such that they could also rank in the top three. I lean toward the latter due to the numerous improvements Phoenix made this offseason. They now have point guards! Although Tyus Jones and Monte Morris may not be superstars, they don’t have to be, given the caliber of players surrounding them. Teams coached by Mike Budenholzer usually boast excellent shot selection. Last season, the Suns relied heavily on mid-range shots, neglecting both the rim and three-point opportunities. While Budenholzer won’t entirely remove Kevin Durant and Devin Booker from shooting mid-range, he can certainly steer the offense toward the more efficient styles it so desperately needed. The Suns are slightly better prepared to handle injuries this season compared to the last.
2023-24 offensive rating: 117.8
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 5
This ranking carries a degree of risk. Denver has never finished lower than seventh in offensive efficiency since Michael
Malone has established Nikola Jokic as a permanent starter. While this isn’t the weakest offensive lineup that Denver has seen during the Jokic era, it’s certainly among the lesser ones, especially as the rest of the league improves. Following a shaky postseason, Jamal Murray had an even more disappointing Olympic performance. His preseason play has not instilled much confidence, and his health for the upcoming season remains uncertain. Last year, Denver took the fewest three-point shots in the league, and they have now lost one of their best shooters, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, to the Magic. The players anticipated to step into larger roles in his absence range from low-volume, decent shooters like Christian Braun to those with subpar shooting abilities who may still have potential for development, such as Peyton Watson, as well as the least efficient high-volume shooter in NBA history, Russell Westbrook. Julian Strawther is essentially the only viable option to create significant spacing, but given Malone’s typical reluctance to utilize younger players, it’s unclear how much playing time he will receive. Jokic’s exceptional talent ensures Denver remains close to a top-10 offense, yet considering all factors at play, it’s more plausible they end up in the lower half of that ranking.
2023-24 offensive rating: 116.5
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 11
The subsequent two teams present almost contrasting scenarios. Much like the Suns, this ranking represents a middle-ground assessment. If the Pelicans can maintain their health, they have a pathway into the top five; however, if injuries plague them, things could deteriorate rapidly. The potential upside is notable, particularly since the Pelicans currently lack a center. The prospect of Zion Williamson driving to the basket with four shooters surrounding him is enticing enough to warrant a spot in the top 10. Regardless of any overlap in skill sets between Brandon Ingram and Dejounte Murray or the health concerns beyond Williamson, the league’s most lethal scorer at the basket is poised to enjoy the best spacing he’s encountered.
11. Sacramento Kings
2023-24 offensive rating: 116.2
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 13
The Pelicans present significant health concerns while the Kings maintain a level of safety. De’Aaron Fox, DeMar DeRozan, and Domantas Sabonis are rarely sidelined by injuries. However, the Pelicans possess a more cohesive array of skills than the Kings. The combination of Zion and effective spacing clearly leads to a higher volume of dunks and three-point shots. Last season, the Kings struggled to attack the rim. Despite attempting a large number of three-point shots, DeRozan rarely contributes in that department. He is likely to improve their low free-throw rate; notably, he was among the few high-usage players who saw an increase in free-throw attempts post-All-Star break last season. At 35 years old, he faces the challenge of adapting to a new offensive system with numerous players to integrate. While the Kings are a comparatively safe offensive bet due to their consistency in player availability, doubts about their potential for greatness linger, particularly concerning the effects of DeRozan’s influence on their scoring and possible declines due to age.
2023-24 offensive rating: 106.8
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 30
Historically, the Grizzlies have ranked as high as No. 4 in offensive performance during injury-free years for Ja Morant, but they“`html
23-24 offensive ranking: No. 9
Whenever Stephen Curry is off the court, the Warriors’ offensive performance significantly declines. This trend has persisted for over a decade. It’s fairly straightforward: scoring becomes much more challenging without Curry. The situation is even more critical now, given the lack of a reliable shot-creator as a backup. The current roster does not possess the same level of star talent as in the past—Kevin Durant is no longer there, and they are also without Jordan Poole or Chris Paul. Curry missed just eight games last season, but he had been absent for a total of 44 games in the two seasons before that. It is feasible that Golden State could surpass last season’s offensive metrics with Curry’s presence. Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga have significant potential for development. Buddy Hield has shown to be a more effective shooter compared to a post-injury Klay Thompson. There is also the possibility that Andrew Wiggins may return to form this season. However, if Curry is sidelined for any length of time, it would severely impact the offense, and given that he is now 36, it’s unrealistic to expect him to play a full 74-game season every year.
2023-24 offensive rating: 115.4
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 15
Last season, the Lakers finished with the No. 15 offense but they ranked third from the moment they made Rui Hachimura a permanent starter until the end of the season. Lakers fans argue that keeping this lineup throughout the season, along with a possible coaching improvement from Darvin Ham to JJ Redick, should lead to a top-10 ranking overall. However, the reality is more nuanced. While the Lakers did perform well offensively after establishing their lineup, the effectiveness of that lineup was only moderate, averaging 116 points per 100 possessions. Their offensive success also depended heavily on defensive-minded role players like Jarred Vanderbilt and Gabe Vincent remaining healthy, though Vanderbilt is currently dealing with an injury. Most critically, the Lakers can’t assume they will have the same level of health as last season. Much of their scoring success hinged on LeBron James and Anthony Davis missing very few games, as they collectively missed just 17. In the previous three seasons, they averaged over 60 missed games together. When both players are on the court, the offense excels, but with only one active, it becomes merely adequate, and without either, the results are predictably poor. The Lakers are slightly better positioned to cope with a star’s absence compared to the Warriors since they have two. Still, like Golden State, Los Angeles is relying on an unrealistic expectation of health to reach previous levels of offensive performance.
2023-24 offensive rating: 114.7
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 16
A positive interpretation of Cleveland’s offense is that they achieved a No. 16 ranking despite Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland missing a combined 52 games. The team is likely to be healthier this season and has made a coaching upgrade with Kenny Atkinson. On the downside, they’re still utilizing two non-shooting big men, and much of their offensive effectiveness last season occurred when Evan Mobley was sidelined. The absences of Garland and Mitchell were staggered, allowing one to increase usage significantly while the other was out, and they enjoyed career-best shooting from their primarily defensive wings, Isaac Okoro and Dean Wade. There are potential paths to a top-10 ranking if everything aligns perfectly, but until the Mobley-Allen duo is altered, this team is
It’s unlikely that their offensive performance will be anything less than average. The lineups featuring Sengun should improve with another year of experience. Similarly, the non-Sengun lineups are expected to fare better after the Green-Thompson experiment. Reed Sheppard can score from extreme distances, while Cam Whitmore showcased significant potential during his rookie season. Furthermore, having a veteran former All-Star point guard like Fred VanVleet on the roster will help steady the situation when pressures intensify. Although the Rockets may be one or two years away from fully competing in the playoffs, they will surely make strides from their .500 record last year.
2023-24 offensive rating: 114.6
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 17
It seems fitting for Minnesota to maintain an identical overall offensive ranking. The Timberwolves will likely struggle more at the beginning of this season compared to last year. The integration of ball-handlers can be challenging. Julius Randle is not a natural fit for their system. Even though Towns is an excellent shooter as a power forward, Randle’s shooting consistency is questionable. The Timberwolves have already faced issues with spacing. The addition of Donte DiVincenzo should contribute positively in this area, and this creates grounds for some long-term optimism. Currently, the Timberwolves have eight players who could start on other teams. In time, they will uncover the right combination of these players, which may involve trading Randle or adjusting lineups to have Naz Reid—who is a more consistent shooter than Randle—start. DiVincenzo might also step up in closing games. While the exact details are still pending, Minnesota now possesses the ability to maintain offensive performance during Anthony Edwards’ rest periods—something they struggled with last year. This doesn’t guarantee a stellar offense, but it does provide a shot at staying competitive overall. With their strong defensive capabilities, Minnesota can withstand a slightly below-average offense.
2023-24 offensive rating: 113.3
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 21
The central question revolves around how much we can expect from Jimmy Butler. The Miami offense thrives during his minutes and falters significantly when he is off the floor. I am skeptical that his upcoming free agency will have a substantial impact on his availability. At 35 years old, injuries are more likely. If he forces himself through minor injuries, he risks exacerbating them. The preseason emergence of Kel’el Ware as a potential draft gem could have significant long-term consequences for the Heat. However, in the short term, a prominent role for Ware might hinder offensive performance. Rookies usually contribute negatively, and two-big lineups tend to struggle offensively, especially if Bam Adebayo doesn’t relinquish minutes. Nevertheless, there are numerous smaller factors suggesting that Miami’s offense could improve overall. Terry Rozier’s full season presence will be beneficial. The Heat were in need of an extra ball-handler. Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez progressively exceeded expectations last year. With Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro still on the roster, there is no shortage of shooting, although fitting all this talent into workable defensive lineups will pose a challenge. The Heat have prioritized defense for years. Their offense may not shine, but they will manage if it hovers around an average level.
2023-24 offensive rating: 116.4
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 12
In the early stages of his career, Trae Young was remarkable at elevating underperforming teams, often being the most underrated catalyst for team offense in the league. However, over the past two seasons, the Hawks with Young have not shown significant improvement compared to when he is absent. You can attribute this to Dejounte Murray’s presence. Their offensive styles did not exactly mesh, but Murray elevated the bench’s performance enough to keep the overall offensive rating decent. With his departure, hope for a strong bench has diminished. The question remains: can Young compensate for this with the starters? He managed to do so at the start of his career, but excitement around his supporting cast is hard to muster. Young forwards like Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, and Dyson Daniels show promise in various aspects, yet none have established themselves as reliable high-volume 3-point shooters just yet. Bogdan Bogdanovic does, but injury issues have plagued him throughout his time with the Hawks, and pairing him with Young may not be defensively sustainable. Should Young miss games, Atlanta’s offense would likely suffer tremendously. This is where teams with a singular elite creator and limited shooting options typically find themselves.
2023-24 offensive rating: 114
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 19
The statistics from last season indicate the Bulls will likely feel the absence of DeMar DeRozan now that he has joined the Kings, but they don’t convey the entire picture. With a healthier Zach LaVine during the 2022-23 season, the Bulls only experienced a slight decline in performance when DeRozan rested. We assume LaVine will be at least more effective and available than last season, and even if he isn’t, Coby White’s improvement provides Chicago with at least one significant offensive contributor. With Josh Giddey on board, the team gains a second. Despite some postseason and defensive shortcomings, Giddey can effectively elevate a team’s performance during the regular season. His presence last season noticeably improved Oklahoma City’s offense. Having a player capable of consistently creating pace and easy scoring opportunities for teammates is crucial during the grueling 82-game season. Although the Bulls may not be as talented without DeRozan, they are expected to play at a faster pace and have a more favorable shot profile. This should allow them to remain in a similar position on the leaderboard.
2023-24 offensive rating: 112.9
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 22
The Magic are unlikely to become a good offensive team until they incorporate or nurture a shot-creating guard, but the existing talent prevents them from being ranked any lower. Acquiring shooting options is always beneficial, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope adds to this effort. With Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, along with most of the rotation players, still early in their careers, we can anticipate continued improvement in their performances. A strong defense often leads to easier offensive opportunities; only the Thunder scored more points off opponents’ turnovers last season. However, the team still struggles with overall shooting. While there are easy opportunities in volume, Banchero and Wagner do not possess the traditional skill set for creating open three-pointers through drives and kicks. The only ball-handler who might see an expanded role this season is Anthony Black, who is not known for his shooting ability. For now, the Magic are playing the waiting game. They will rely on their defense while assessing whether they can develop a viable offense internally or whether a trade is necessary to bolster their scoring.
22. Los Angeles Clippers
2023-24 offensive rating: 117.9
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 4
Before you think, “Paul George can’t possibly account for an 18-spot drop,” let me clarify that he does not. There are numerous warning signs present. Kawhi Leonard played in 68 games last season, a feat he hadn’t accomplished since 2017. It’s unreasonable to dismiss his injuries as merely lingering; they seem almost permanent at this stage. Following just two games in the playoffs due to what was initially labeled a day-to-day issue, he also missed both the Olympics and the preseason. The Clippers could withstand Leonard’s absence better if James Harden returns to form. Unfortunately, he struggled down the stretch last season, averaging under 15 points with shooting splits of 39-30-89. Most offseason acquisitions focused on defense. Derrick Jones Jr. is an inconsistent shooter who thrived last season alongside one of the NBA’s top pick-and-roll creators and may be due for regression. Kris Dunn Jr. is simply not a shooter. Perhaps they can enhance the offensive output from bench units with Nic Batum filling in at backup center, a strategy Ty Lue has successfully employed in the past. However, apart from aging stars and Norm Powell, the roster lacks scoring options. When you factor in George’s absence as well, it seems the Clippers are poised for a significant offensive decline on paper.
2023-24 offensive rating: 114.5
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 18
The Jazz are one of the teams I expect could potentially prove me wrong. Will Hardy’s teams consistently manage to perform better than their talent suggests offensively. Last season, they finished in 18th place, and in 2023, they ranked ninth even after Danny Ainge made significant roster changes at the trade deadline in both years. The primary distinction for this team is its youthful composition. Players such as Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, Cody Williams, and Isaiah Collier have considerable long-term potential, but none of them are of legal drinking age yet. The Jazz will take the right shots, but the shooting capability here is less than what their reputations might indicate. John Collins and Jordan Clarkson have been reliable three-point shooters in the past, but…
In the past, things were different. However, recent trends suggest a decline in rankings for March and April if Ainge’s typical patterns persist. the Jazz are likely to continue exceeding expectations. This season is merely a step on the journey toward contention in which they are the least prepared.
2023-24 offensive rating: 108.6
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 28
Consider this a reminder of how long ago things can feel: back in 2022, the Hornets boasted the eighth-best offense. While their roster has changed significantly, the fundamental principle remains if LaMelo Ball stays healthy. The strategy is to play quickly, launch plenty of 3-pointers, and hope for positive outcomes. Ball’s pace is frenetic, and with Charles Lee coming from Boston, expect a high volume of 3-point attempts. However, excitement beyond this initial concept is limited. This is a young team, even by rebuilding criteria. The only players with over five years of experience on the roster are Taj Gibson and Seth Curry, neither of whom plays a significant role. Although Brandon Miller had a promising rookie season, he is still in his second year, and there’s more development needed. Until Ball’s health is firmly established, it will remain a lingering concern. While this may turn into an entertaining offense with some standout moments, it’s likely to sit near the bottom of the league’s rankings.
2023-24 offensive rating: 109.3
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 26
If the Spurs are to make significant progress this season, it will more likely come from defensive improvements rather than offensive ones. Despite the excitement surrounding Victor Wembanyama towards the end of last season, the Spurs struggled to find an effective offensive rhythm. During the minutes he shared the court with Tre Jones, even in wins, the overall offensive performance was below average, while defense shone brightly. The team is still filled with many raw and youthful talents. Stephon Castle has not yet developed a reliable shooting touch. Jeremy Sochan improved last season, but there’s still much room for growth. Last season, only the Grizzlies and Blazers had lower shooting percentages from beyond the arc. Chris Paul is expected to make a long-term positive impact, instilling good habits in the younger players, although he’ll turn 40 this season. For a successful offense, strong shooting and a point guard capable of driving to the basket are essential—elements the Spurs currently lack. Wembanyama appears ready, but the rest of the team needs more development. This gradual approach is acceptable; slow and steady often prevails.
2023-24 offensive rating: 111.8
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 24
The fundamental issue with anticipating offensive success from the Toronto Raptors is the uncertainty surrounding their three key players. In his first two seasons, Scottie Barnes managed just 29% from 3-point range, but improved to 39% from October to December, leading some to believe his shooting mechanics had been corrected. However, his drop to just over 26% from January onward suggests that earlier success may not have been sustainable. RJ Barrett had an astonishing 60% success rate on 2-pointers and 39% from beyond the arc as a Raptor, a feat that even Kevin Durant couldn’t replicate last season, indicating Barrett is due for regression. Immanuel Quickley also faced a decrease in efficiency after transitioning from a bench player to a starter upon arriving in Toronto last season. Although he grew more comfortable as the season went on, it’s still uncertain how much ball-handling responsibility he can manage. If all three players perform well, the Raptors could be a decent offensive team. However, if they experience inconsistent seasons, the offense is likely to struggle greatly.
2023-24 offensive rating: 109
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 27
The Pistons held the unfortunate title of being the only team in the NBA last season to rank 25th or lower in both 3-point attempts and 3-point shooting percentage. They used their high lottery pick to select Ron Holland, a high-usage scorer who managed only 23.9% from 3-point range in the G-League. Their costly offseason signings intended to enhance shooting – Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. – recorded 36.5% and 35.2% respectively on catch-and-shoot 3s last season. The team prioritized creating their own shots instead of facilitating opportunities for Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. If a team can’t shoot, it can’t score, and the Pistons are struggling with their shooting abilities. Consequently, scoring will continue to be a challenge.
2023-24 offensive rating: 107.6
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 29
Any hope for the Blazers as they enter the season hinges on the presence of several valuable veterans on a team otherwise focused on rebuilding. Key players such as Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, and Anfernee Simons often do not persevere through rebuild phases. They are still with the team. However, they were part of last year’s lineup when the Blazers struggled immensely on offense, finishing as the NBA’s worst three-point shooting team. The team is now depending on second-year point guard Scoot Henderson, whose performance in his rookie season fell short of expectations. These veterans could be traded at any moment, and with Portland aiming for a favorable draft outcome this season, the scoreboard is likely to reflect a tough journey ahead.
29. Brooklyn Nets
2023-24 offensive rating: 112.4
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 23
There exists a cautiously optimistic perspective on the Brooklyn Nets that could elevate their offense, possibly not to the middle of the rankings but at least away from the bottom five. Imagine if Ben Simmons returned to form? Cam Thomas could conceivably average 30 points! The team has shooters like Cam Johnson on the wings. However, these scenarios come with significant doubts. Even if Simmons manages to stay healthy—an enormous “if” considering his recent history—most criticisms directed at him are founded in truth. In a limited role last season, he recorded more than ten times the number of passes (749) than shot attempts (74), showing a reluctance to draw fouls. While Thomas may put up impressive scoring numbers, efficiency remains a concern; he took more shots per game than both LeBron James and Nikola Jokic last season while averaging a meager 22.5 points. Johnson is likely to be traded as soon as possible, especially after the Nets have invested heavily in regaining control of their own first-round pick. This signals to the basketball community their intention to endure a rough season, either through natural progression or managerial decision-making geared toward losing.
2023-24 offensive rating: 110.2
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 25
Last season, only two players from the Wizards logged at least 700 minutes while maintaining an on-court offensive rating above 110: Daniel Gafford and Tyus Jones. Both have since moved to different teams. If the criteria are lowered to an offensive rating of 109, three additional players qualify: Deni Avdija, Kyle Kuzma, and Landry Shamet, but only Kuzma remains with the franchise. It’s perplexing how a team that managed just 15 wins could lose this much talent, particularly when that talent was marginal at best. Examining the offseason signings reveals Saddiq Bey receiving a three-year contract yet expected to be sidelined for most, if not all, of the upcoming season due to a torn ACL. Jonas Valanciunas is already the subject of trade speculation before the season kicks off. Meanwhile, Malcolm Brogdon is dealing with a torn ligament in his right thumb, and Alex Sarr, the second overall pick, suffered an 0-for-15 shooting performance in the Summer League. This appears to be a calculated effort to secure a top draft position.
Analyzing the Evolution of NBA Offense: Records, Trends, and Season Predictions for 2023-24
The Changing Landscape of NBA Offense
The NBA has undergone a significant transformation over the last few decades, particularly regarding offensive strategies and styles of play. From the dominance of low-post play to the rise of perimeter shooting, the evolution of NBA offense is a fascinating topic for fans and analysts alike. This article explores notable records, emerging trends, and predictions for the upcoming 2023-24 season.
Historical Context: Offensive Evolution in the NBA
To understand current trends, it’s essential to look back at the history of NBA offenses. Here are some key phases in the evolution:
- The Low-Post Era (1980s-1990s): Players like Shaquille O’Neal and Hakeem Olajuwon dominated the paint, leading to offenses primarily centered around post plays.
- The Rise of the Perimeter Shooter (2000s): With players like Ray Allen and Kobe Bryant, the league began to embrace three-point shooting, changing defensive strategies across the board.
- The Small Ball Revolution (2010s): The Golden State Warriors‘ success with a smaller, quicker lineup showcased the effectiveness of spacing and shooting over traditional size.
Current Offensive Trends in the NBA
As we approach the 2023-24 season, several trends are shaping the landscape of NBA offense:
1. Increased Three-Point Attempts
The three-point shot has become a crucial part of team strategies. In the 2022-23 season, the average team attempted over 34 three-pointers per game, a significant increase from previous decades.
2. Pace and Space Offenses
Teams are prioritizing ball movement and spacing on the floor. Fast-paced offenses can lead to higher scoring games, encouraging teams to push the ball after every rebound or make a quick inbounds pass.
3. Versatile Players
The modern NBA favors players who can shoot, pass, and handle the ball. For example, forwards like Luka Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo have redefined their positions, making it harder for traditional defenses to match up effectively.
4. Advanced Analytics
Coaches are increasingly relying on advanced statistics to inform their offensive strategies. Metrics like effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and player efficiency rating (PER) provide insights that influence playcalling and roster decisions.
Records to Watch in 2023-24
The 2023-24 season promises to break several offensive records. Here are a few to keep an eye on:
| Record | Current Holder | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Most Points Per Game | Michael Jordan | 1986-87 |
| Most Three-Pointers in a Season | Stephen Curry | 2015-16 |
| Highest Offensive Rating | 2020-21 Brooklyn Nets | 2020-21 |
| Most Points in a Single Game | Wilt Chamberlain | 1961-62 |
Benefits of the Evolving Offense
The shift in offensive strategies has brought numerous benefits to teams, players, and fans:
- Higher Scoring Games: The emphasis on offense has led to some of the highest-scoring games in NBA history, providing fans with thrilling entertainment.
- Player Development: Young players are encouraged to develop a diverse skill set, making them more valuable and versatile in the league.
- Strategic Depth: Coaches can implement various offensive schemes, allowing them to exploit opponents’ weaknesses more effectively.
Season Predictions for 2023-24
As we gear up for the 2023-24 NBA season, several predictions can be made based on current trends:
1. Continued Growth of Three-Point Shooting
Expect the trend of increased three-point attempts to continue. With more teams prioritizing shooting, we may see individual players surpass the current record for three-pointers made in a season.
2. Emergence of New Star Players
As the game evolves, new players are stepping up. Watch for young talents like LaMelo Ball and Jaden Ivey to establish themselves as key contributors to high-octane offenses.
3. Impact of Rule Changes
Potential rule changes regarding offensive fouls and hand-checking may further influence scoring. If implemented, expect teams to adapt quickly in their offensive strategies.
Case Studies: Teams to Watch
Several teams have successfully adapted to the changing offensive landscape. Here are three teams to keep an eye on in the 2023-24 season:
1. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors continue to innovate their offense around the talents of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, focusing on spacing and ball movement to create open shots.
2. Dallas Mavericks
Led by Luka Dončić, the Mavericks excel at utilizing pick-and-roll plays and three-point shooting, making them a formidable opponent in high-scoring matchups.
3. Phoenix Suns
With a roster filled with offensive talent, the Suns are set to challenge records for points scored. Their ability to adapt quickly to opponents’ defenses will be crucial for their success.
Practical Tips for NBA Fans
For fans looking to better understand the evolving offense in the NBA, here are some practical tips:
- Follow Analytics: Stay updated on advanced metrics to gain deeper insights into team and player performances.
- Watch for Player Versatility: Pay attention to how players adapt their games, as versatility is becoming a crucial aspect of a successful NBA career.
- Engage with Community: Join forums and discussions about offensive strategies to share insights and learn from other basketball enthusiasts.
