This article originally appeared in the CNBC Sport newsletter authored by Alex Sherman, highlighting key news and exclusive interviews from the sports business and media sectors. Subscribe to get future editions delivered directly to your inbox.
The NFL‘s media rights agreement, spanning 11 years and valued at $111 billion, stands as the largest in the United States. There is a clause allowing for exit after the 2028-29 season for all media partners, with the exception of Disney, which has a one-year extension option.
According to sources, this opt-out clause also pertains to the “Sunday Ticket,” the NFL’s out-of-market package for which Alphabet‘s YouTube has paid roughly $2 billion. Consequently, following the 2029 Super Bowl, the NFL holds the potential to completely reshape the media landscape if it decides to do so.
In the media industry, five years is significant, reflecting the fast-paced evolution in this field. For context, five years ago, platforms such as Disney+, NBCUniversal‘s Peacock, Paramount+, and Max (previously HBO Max) had not yet launched. Presently, these services boast over 300 million subscribers collectively.
It is not premature to begin contemplating the implications of 2029. It may not be an exaggeration to suggest that 2029 could mark the conclusion of the modern media period. By that time, it is conceivable that streaming services will have gained substantial dominance, prompting the NFL to consider shifting some Sunday afternoon broadcasts away from traditional television, particularly in light of the robust financial standing and global reach of entities like Netflix, Google, Apple, and Amazon.
To be clear, the current evidence indicates that the NFL is unlikely to pursue this course of action. Television ratings for football on CBS, Fox, and NBC are performing impressively. The Week 2 matchup between the Bengals and the Chiefs on CBS was the highest-rated September NFL game since 1998, attracting nearly 28 million viewers. Last year, 93 of the top 100 <a href="https://link.cnbc.com/click/36854706.464/aHR
However, I am aware that some executives from traditional media are already strategizing for 2029, exploring ways to effectively compete with tech giants for NFL broadcasting rights. Their proposals vary from incremental changes, such as introducing a third Sunday afternoon package, to more revolutionary ideas: What if the NFL eliminated the Sunday Ticket and adopted a college-style model that allowed every game to reach a national audience?
This notion isn’t entirely far-fetched. The broadcasting regulations for local markets are vital to the league but increasingly seem outdated. Technology is no longer a barrier; streaming services are capable of simultaneously hosting multiple games. With sufficient bidders for game packages, the league might actually generate greater revenue by selling rights to numerous media partners instead of adhering to the Sunday Ticket model, which nearly cost the league $4.7 billion in damages after a jury ruled it violated antitrust laws. (Fortunately for the NFL, a judge intervened by overturning that ruling last month.)
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During an NFL football matchup against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on September 12, 2024, Josh Allen, wearing jersey number 17 for the Buffalo Bills, scrambled out of the pocket.
Perry Knotts | Getty Images
Conversely, the presence of several games airing simultaneously on a national scale may prove to be less beneficial for both media companies and the league. Currently, YouTube invests around $2 billion annually for the rights to Sunday Ticket. While the analysis surrounding this situation is intricate, it is undoubtedly a topic that the NFL will scrutinize closely.
“This presents an excellent thought experiment,” remarked Robert Fishman from MoffettNathanson. ”If this offers a new way to utilize the significant national reach of broadcast networks while ensuring local access, then it’s certainly worthy of examination.”
The NFL has actively welcomed a variety of partners into its fold. In addition to YouTube, the league has collaborated with Netflix to stream Christmas games for the next three years. Furthermore, Amazon contributes approximately $1 billion each year for the broadcasting of Thursday Night Football.
The league seeks both technological collaborators and broadcasting partners. In its latest rights agreement, the NBA opted for only three media packages to alleviate consumer confusion and subscription fatigue.
In contrast, the NFL seems unfazed by such concerns. The league has already chosen to air some games exclusively on Amazon Prime and NBCUniversal’s Peacock, along with other platforms.
Ratings continue to hold steady.
The NFL’s popularity, especially in comparison to other television content, makes its broadcasting rights a pivotal aspect of the American media landscape. This will be a focal point for significant media and entertainment decisions over the next five years.
Here are a few additional updates …
- For those who follow professional wrestling, there are reports that Warner Bros. Discovery is on track to finalize a deal with the emerging wrestling organization All Elite Wrestling (AEW) by the end of the month. AEW’s current contract with Warner Bros. Discovery’s Turner Sports is set to expire at the year’s conclusion.
- This week, Paramount Global officially cut a substantial number of the 2,000 jobs it announced would be eliminated in August. However, in recognition of the critical role sports play in the company’s future, it has been confirmed that none of the layoffs affected CBS Sports.
