Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal all performed better than the league average on shots taken inside the arc last season.
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The Phoenix Suns are facing a numerical conundrum. In the second game of the first round in April, both the Suns and the Minnesota Timberwolves finished with identical shooting stats, going 35-for-78 from the floor, while the Suns enjoyed a better 3-point shooting performance. Nonetheless, they lost by 12 points, coming back from a 19-point deficit in the fourth quarter.
Even with both teams achieving the same number of field goals, Minnesota attempted 10 more 3-pointers, successfully hitting nine compared to the Suns’ eight, while also enjoying a 30-19 lead in free-throw attempts. In essence, the Timberwolves triumphed through superior math, leveraging their increased 3-point shooting and committing six fewer turnovers.
Fast forward five days to Game 4, where the Suns shot 51.4% and the Wolves shot 46.1%, and Minnesota completed the series sweep with a six-point victory. Over the course of the four games, the Suns faced a staggering deficit of 40 fewer shooting opportunities and hit 33 fewer 3-pointers than their opponent.
* Shooting opportunities are defined as either field goal attempts or trips to the free-throw line.
During the regular season, the Suns were equal with the Denver Nuggets for the most games (59) where they recorded a higher field-goal percentage than their opponents. However, while the Nuggets boasted an impressive win-loss record of 54-5 (.915) in those scenarios, the Suns’ record stood at 43-16 (.729). This .729 percentage ranks as the lowest among the 18 teams that finished the season with winning records.
Below, we present some statistics and clips regarding the Suns’ mathematical challenges and potential solutions for improvement this season.
1. Discrepancy in Shot Attempts
Throughout the regular season, the Suns averaged 3.3 fewer shot opportunities than their opponents, with only“`html
98.2
19
101.7
29
-3.5
96.4
25
99.7
19
-3.3
100.3
5
103.4
30
-3.2
99.0
13
101.4
28
-2.4
97.8
20
99.8
21
-2.0
Shooting opportunity = FGA + (0.44 * FTA)
The Suns faced two significant issues. They were ranked 28th in turnover differential, averaging 2.2 more turnovers per game than their opponents. Additionally, they placed 21st in offensive-rebound differential, collecting 0.8 fewer rebounds per game.
During their first-round playoff sweep, the Suns secured only 41.8% of available rebounds, marking the second-lowest rate recorded by any team in a playoff series in the past 15 years. The Timberwolves capitalized on their size and speed to effectively chase down the ball.
2. The turnover issue
Although turnovers were a concern during the playoffs, they were even more pronounced in the regular“`html
Durant’s turnover rate was 10.9 per 100 possessions used, a decrease from the previous season’s 11.3, yet it still ranked seventh among 50 players with a usage rate of 25% or higher.
Due to his height, Durant’s dribble is susceptible to being poked away. A significant portion of his turnovers occurs when defenders manage to disrupt his control on the ball as he prepares to shoot or pass.
Defensively, the Suns adopted a less conservative approach to guarding pick-and-rolls, but they struggled to generate turnovers compared to their opponents.
3. Is there an overreliance on mid-range shots?
In addition to the disparity in shooting opportunities, the Suns faced the statistical reality that ”three points are greater than two points.”
The Suns ranked among the top five teams — alongside the Thunder — in both mid-range field goal percentage (47.4%, second) and 3-point percentage (38.2%, fifth). However, their attempts ratio of 3-pointers to mid-range shots (2.4/1) placed them 29th, only ahead of the Chicago Bulls (2.2/1).
Although the Suns excelled in mid-range shooting, their efficiency at 0.95 points per attempt for mid-range shots pales in comparison to the 1.15 points per attempt for 3-pointers.
Mid-range shots can be crucial, particularly considering how most big men defend against pick-and-roll plays. Nevertheless, the Suns would benefit from increasing their 3-point attempts relative to mid-range efforts to avoid constantly needing to outperform their opponents shooting accuracy.
Last season, 213 players took at least 200 shots from beyond the paint (excluding backcourt shots), with the Suns boasting three of the top eight in 3-point attempt to mid-range attempt ratios. However, those three players — Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, and Eric Gordon — were fourth, sixth, and eighth on the team in total field-goal attempts.
The players with the highest shot attempts — Durant (0.8), Booker (1.1), and Bradley Beal (1.6) — ranked 205th, 201st, and 189th, respectively, in 3PA/mid-range ratios among the 213 players with at least 200 field-goal attempts from outside the paint.
Beal’s 43.6% shooting percentage on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers represented his best performance in the 11 seasons for which data is available; however, he attempted just 3.1 catch-and-shoot 3s, placing him fifth on the Suns.
Like Durant, Beal sometimes takes a moment too long to shoot and instead opts to dribble when a catch-and-shoot 3-pointer is available.
Beal, Booker, and Durant are all skilled players who performed better than the league average inside the arc last season. The Suns possess the talent necessary to exploit defenses willing to concede mid-range shots. However, the statistics suggest they should prioritize taking more 3-pointers when opportunities arise
The Suns have also undergone a coaching change, transitioning from Frank Vogel to Mike Budenholzer. During Budenholzer’s five seasons with the Milwaukee Bucks, his teams ranked first in the league for points allowed per 100 possessions on two occasions, yet they never achieved a higher ranking than 24th in opponent turnover rate throughout his tenure.
In Khris Middleton, the Bucks boasted one of the premier mid-range shooters of the past decade. However, their offensive strategy centered around a different player (Giannis Antetokounmpo) than anyone currently on the Suns. In terms of the ratio of 3-point attempts to mid-range attempts, the Bucks were average (3.4, ranked 16th in 2022-23).
A ratio of 3.4 would be an excellent figure for Budenholzer’s inaugural season in Phoenix. While improving rebounding may prove challenging, if the Suns can raise their 3-point attempt rate and reduce turnovers, they will not find themselves struggling against the numbers.
This strategy will enable them to fully leverage their elite talent.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, explore his archive here, and follow him on X.
The opinions expressed on this page do not necessarily represent the views of the NBA, its teams, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
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Mathematical Challenges: How the Phoenix Suns Can Optimize Their Game for Success
Understanding Game Metrics
The Phoenix Suns, a prominent team in the NBA, have the opportunity to leverage mathematical insights to enhance their performance on the court. By focusing on key game metrics, the Suns can make data-driven decisions that lead to better strategies and outcomes. Below are essential metrics to consider:
- Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%): This metric accounts for the value of three-point shots, providing a more accurate depiction of shooting efficiency.
- Player Efficiency Rating (PER): A comprehensive measure of a player’s overall contributions on the court.
- Offensive and Defensive Ratings: These ratings help assess how many points a team scores or allows per 100 possessions.
Using Advanced Analytics
Advanced analytics have transformed how teams approach the game. The Suns can harness these insights to optimize their strategies:
- Shot Selection: Analyzing shot charts can help identify high-efficiency scoring zones.
- Lineup Optimization: Utilizing data to determine the most effective player combinations can maximize performance.
- Opponent Analysis: Understanding opposing teams’ weaknesses through statistical breakdowns can inform game plans.
Case Study: The Impact of Data on Player Development
One notable example of mathematical application in basketball is the development of shooting techniques. The Suns have the opportunity to implement similar methods to enhance their players’ skills:
Player Shooting Techniques
| Player | Old Shooting Percentage | New Shooting Percentage | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 45% | 48% | 6.67% |
| Kevin Durant | 49% | 52% | 6.12% |
| Chris Paul | 41% | 43% | 4.88% |
Through the use of shooting analytics, the Suns can monitor player progress and tailor drills that focus on improving weaknesses.
Benefits of Mathematical Optimization
Implementing mathematical strategies can yield several benefits for the Phoenix Suns:
- Increased Efficiency: By focusing on high-percentage shots and minimizing turnovers, the Suns can boost overall scoring efficiency.
- Enhanced Defense: Analyzing opponents’ shooting patterns allows for the design of defensive plays that effectively counteract their strengths.
- Player Longevity: Data-driven training regimens can help prevent injuries by monitoring player workloads and recovery times.
Practical Tips for Implementation
For the Suns to effectively incorporate mathematical strategies into their game, they can follow these actionable tips:
- Invest in Analytics Software: Utilizing cutting-edge analytics platforms can provide real-time data and insights.
- Collaboration Between Coaches and Analysts: Fostering a strong partnership between coaching staff and data analysts can ensure that insights are effectively translated into actionable strategies.
- Regularly Review Performance Metrics: Establishing a routine for reviewing game footage and statistics can keep the team informed and adaptable.
First-Hand Experience: A Coach’s Perspective
Coaches from the Suns have expressed how analytics have helped shape their gameplay. One coach noted:
“Utilizing advanced statistics has allowed us to pinpoint our strengths and weaknesses more accurately. We can now make informed decisions that directly influence our winning strategy.”
Challenges in Implementation
While the benefits of using mathematical strategies are clear, the Suns may face challenges in implementation:
- Resistance to Change: Players and staff may be hesitant to adopt new methodologies.
- Data Overload: With an abundance of data available, focusing on the most relevant metrics can be overwhelming.
- Inconsistent Application: Ensuring that all team members consistently apply data-driven insights can be difficult.
Conclusion
By embracing mathematical challenges and optimizing their game strategies, the Phoenix Suns can enhance their performance and achieve greater success on the court. Implementing data-driven methodologies not only benefits the players but also creates a more dynamic and competitive team environment.
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