With so many coveted free agents being starting pitchers—and new additions from Japan’s premier league joining the mix—the 2024 offseason offers teams unprecedented opportunities to bolster their rotations. But who reigns supreme in this star-studded pitching market?
To shed light on this question, MLB.com enlisted its expert panel to rank the top free agent starting pitchers for the upcoming season, culminating in this final 2024 edition of Starting Pitcher Power Rankings.
See where each pitcher landed and their predicted landing spots for 2024:
1. Corbin Burnes, Orioles
Burnes presents a compelling case. He’s a four-time All-Star with a near-guaranteed spot among the top 10 Cy Young Award finishers in 2024, including his 2021 victory. The 30-year-old has consistently excelled—throwing over 190 innings with an ERA+ above 125 for three consecutive seasons. However, concerns arise from his plummeting strikeout and whiff rates since their peak in 2021-22. This past season, his 23.1% K rate ranked only 29th among 58 qualified pitchers. While this might deter some teams from committing to a long-term deal, Burnes’ exceptional track record places him at the top of this class.
2. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines (NPB)
Why will Sasaki become the center of every MLB team’s pursuit once his posting window opens? Imagine if NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner Paul Skenes suddenly became available to any suitor. At 23 years old, Sasaki, just seven months older than Skenes, possesses top-tier power stuff, comparable to the Pirates right-hander. Like Shohei Ohtani in 2017, Sasaki’s subject to international bonus pool money restrictions, meaning signing him will involve a relatively small financial commitment for any team.
Risks exist, particularly concerning his health and durability, but Sasaki’s potential surpasses anyone else available this offseason—excluding Juan Soto.
3. Blake Snell, Giants
Snell’s first foray into free agency was underwhelming. Despite earning his second Cy Young Award in 2023, he lingered on the market until mid-March before accepting a one-year deal with the Giants, with a player option for 2025. Expect a more favorable outcome this time after Snell exercises his opt-out clause. Although his late start last season initially hindered him, Snell proved virtually unstoppable for the final three months, posting a remarkable 1.23 ERA and 1.77 FIP across 14 starts, including a no-hitter on August 2nd against Cincinnati. Opponents hit a meager .123/.211/.171 against him during this period. While concerns about durability and high walk rates persist, Snell’s dominance at his best remains undeniable.
4. Max Fried, Braves
Be prepared for a stat that might surprise you: Among 67 pitchers with at least 500 innings over the past five seasons, Fried boasts the best ERA+ (151), significantly higher than Burnes and Zack Wheeler (141). However, Fried ranks only 25th in innings and 34th in strikeout rate among this group, perhaps explaining his position outside the top three. While he hasn’t consistently blown hitters away with velocity or strikeouts, Fried excels at limiting runs.
1. Spencer Strider, BravesStrider’s ascension has been nothing short of meteoric. He’s a strikeout machine, consistently topping the league with his elite velocity and devastating slider. The biggest reason for Strider’s consistent excellence? He expertly avoids hard contact while keeping the ball within the ballpark.
2. Aaron Nola, PhilliesComing off a dominant 2024 season, Nola continues to be a force on the mound. His impeccable command and consistently above-average stuff make him one of the most dependable pitchers in the game. He has emerged as a true ace for the Phillies while maintaining incredible durability.
3. Gerrit Cole, YankeesDespite his recent postseason struggles, Cole remains one of baseball’s premier pitchers. He boasts an elite fastball and consistently generates whiffs with his slider and breaking ball. After a minor statistical dip in 2024, expect Cole to bounce back and solidify his place among the league’s elite.
4. Max Fried, BravesFried has consistently demonstrated top-tier performance since joining Atlanta’s starting rotation. His combination of a sinking fastball and sharp breaking balls keeps hitters off balance, leading to numerous ground ball outs. Additionally, Fried thrives in pressure situations, demonstrating remarkable resilience throughout his career. On the
Others Receiving Votes:
- Luis Severino
- Tomoyuki Sugano
- Nick Martinez
- Nick Pivetta
- Max Scherzer
- Charlie Morton
- Jose Quintana
Voters:
- David Adler
- Chris Begley
- Brett Blueweiss
- Jason Catania
- Scott Chiusano
- Doug Gausepohl
- Thomas Harrigan
- Bryan Horowitz
- Ricardo Montes de Oca
- Brian Murphy
- Arturo Pardavila
- Manny Randhawa
- David Venn
- Zac Vierra
- Tom Vourtsis
- Andy Werle
2024 MLB Starting Pitcher Power Rankings: The Free Agent Market Heats Up
The 2023 Major League Baseball season is still underway, but attention is already turning to the 2024 offseason and, more specifically, the potential shakeup in the starting pitcher market. A slew of talented arms are set to become free agents, creating a goldmine of opportunity for teams looking to bolster their rotations.
Top Free Agent Starting Pitchers
Here’s a look at some of the top names expected to hit the free agent market in 2024 and their potential impact:
* **Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels):** Arguably the most coveted player on the planet, Ohtani is not just a two-way threat but an absolute anomaly. His offensive prowess as a hitter combined with his dominant pitching makes him a generational talent. While re-signing with the Angels remains possible, numerous teams will be vying for his signature.
* **Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees):** One of the most feared pitchers in baseball, Cole consistently delivers elite performances with his fastball velocity and devastating slider. A New York Yankee through and through, it remains to be seen if the Bombers can afford to keep their ace.
* **Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies):** A perennial All-Star candidate, Nola possesses a lethal combination of movement and command. He anchors the Phillies’ rotation and has consistently led them deep into playoff runs.
* **Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies):** The dynamic duo from Philly! Wheeler is known for his durability, high strikeout rate, and ability to thrive in pressure situations. Teams will be lining up to secure the services of this proven winner.
Impact on the Free Agent Market
The influx of star power into the free agent market is sure to have a ripple effect:
* **Bidding Wars:** Expect fierce competition among teams for the top pitchers, potentially driving up salaries and setting new benchmarks.
* **Trade Frenzy:** Teams desperate for pitching reinforcements might look to trade prospects or established players to acquire starting arms before they hit free agency.
* **Shifting Team Dynamics:** The movement of high-profile pitchers could drastically alter team landscapes and create new powerhouses in the MLB.
Benefits of Landing a Top Free Agent Starter
Securing a top-tier starting pitcher can provide numerous benefits:
* **Increased Win Potential:** Elite starters elevate their teams’ winning chances by consistently delivering quality starts and limiting runs scored.
* **Improved Franchise Value:** A star pitcher can draw fans, increase merchandise sales, and boost the overall value of a franchise.
* **Leadership and Mentorship:** Top free agents often bring experience, leadership qualities, and guidance to younger pitchers on the roster.
Practical Tips for Teams Pursuing Free Agent Pitchers
Here are some practical tips teams should consider when targeting top free agent starters:
* **Financial Flexibility:** Teams must have ample resources to compete in bidding wars and offer lucrative contracts.
* **Building a Cohesive System:** Assembling a strong pitching staff beyond the ace, with a reliable bullpen and solid defense, is crucial for success.
* **Player Fit:** Assessing the pitcher’s personality, preferences, and potential impact on team culture is essential.
Market Predictions
It’s hard to predict with certainty which teams will land these coveted free agents. However, based on current performance, financial resources, and reported interest:
| Team | Predicted Landing Spot | Notes |
|—|—|—|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers have the financial muscle and a history of acquiring top talent |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees | The Yankees will likely do everything in their power to keep their ace. |
| Aaron Nola | San Francisco Giants | Giants are building a strong roster and might be willing to spend big for an established starter like Nola |
| Zack Wheeler | St. Louis Cardinals | The Cardinals have young stars but need pitching depth – Wheeler fits the bill. |
The 2024 MLB free agent market is poised to be one of the most exciting in recent memory, particularly for teams seeking starting pitching upgrades. The coming months will undoubtedly bring plenty of twists and turns as teams strategize, negotiate, and ultimately attempt to build their dream rotations for the upcoming season.
