“`html
• The Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow connection has been exceptional since 2021: Despite missing his star quarterback for a significant part of last season, Chase still ranked as a top-10 PPR wide receiver.
• The tight end position offers reliability year-to-year, making for some solid picks: There are certain highly-rated tight ends that we can confidently project to meet their ADPs in 2024.
• Excel in your fantasy football season with promo code PFF25: Gain full access to all of PFF’s fantasy resources and tools, including the comprehensive fantasy football mock draft simulator, at a 25% discount by using promo code PFF25.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
As the fantasy football draft season escalates and average draft positions stabilize during the preseason, a variety of outcomes emerges for numerous fantasy players heading into 2024. However, it may not always be wise to gamble on specific individuals, particularly in the early rounds of the draft.
Going through each round, we will highlight players with the most secure range of outcomes, assuming they remain healthy, which drafters might want to focus on to establish reliable production for 2024.
Round 1: WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
The first round of fantasy drafts features multiple players with stable floors and significant upside, making it difficult to narrow down the options. However, Chase emerges as a standout choice. Since entering the NFL in 2021, he has consistently finished as a top-12 PPR wide receiver in all three seasons, including last year where he ranked as WR10 despite Joe Burrow missing half of the season due to injury.
As he steps into his fourth season, Chase, with a healthy Joe Burrow leading the way, is poised for another impressive year.
“`
Ja’Marr Chase has the potential to take his performance to a higher level, as his current top-five ADP might just represent the minimum of what he can achieve during his peak years. Since 2021, Chase has recorded a 90.9 receiving grade, ranking him among the top 12 wide receivers, along with an impressive 2.19 yards per route run (minimum 500 routes). His potential could exceed these numbers further as he continues to develop as an NFL wide receiver, and with Joe Burrow delivering passes, there are no worries about quarterback performance hindering his progress.
Ja’Marr Chase’s WR ranks since 2021:
Round 2: TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
LaPorta had a remarkable rookie season as a tight end, finishing as the overall TE1 and playing a crucial role in the Lions’ newly efficient offense, which was one of the best in the league in 2023. Not only was LaPorta the primary tight end in that setup, but he also stood out as the second-best receiving threat in the offense, trailing only Amon-Ra St. Brown. This achievement is particularly noteworthy for a rookie tight end and bodes well for his fantasy prospects as he heads into Year 2.
LaPorta’s target rate of 23.9% for the season, including playoffs, placed him third among tight ends, surpassing even Travis Kelce, the Kansas City Chiefs’ primary offensive target. The Lions’ offense relied heavily on tight ends in 2023, with Jared Goff targeting the position at a top-five rate (22.3%) among quarterbacks (minimum 350 dropbacks). Consequently, LaPorta achieved eight top-five weekly finishes at his position throughout the season, more than any other tight end, and additionally secured three more top-10 finishes. Being a younger player, this presents an optimistic outlook for his performance this season.
“`html
It is evident that there is no doubt about him finishing in the top five at his position again, establishing a solid floor that makes him a safe pick in this year’s second round of fantasy drafts.
Sam LaPorta’s rookie season (2023) and rookie TE ranks since 2006 (min. 250 routes):
Round 3: QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Selected as the second quarterback, Hurts possesses a floor that assures him a spot in the top five of his position, having finished in the top three for two consecutive seasons. The effective combination of his remarkable rushing output, goal-line usage, and elite receiving options creates the ideal scenario we seek in our fantasy quarterbacks. It could be argued that no other player at his position meets all three of these essential criteria as effectively as Hurts does heading into 2024.
In the last two seasons, with both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith as his primary targets, Hurts has consistently produced at least 3,700 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 600 rushing yards, and 13 rushing touchdowns per season. No other quarterback has achieved more than two of these milestones in the past two years, not even Josh Allen, who is being drafted a round earlier than Hurts. The Eagles are poised to remain one of the top offenses in the NFL, thanks to the combination of Hurts and his elite offensive weapons, ensuring his high-end production stays consistently impressive.
“`
Over the past two seasons, Jalen Hurts has established himself as one of the most reliable choices in the initial three rounds of a fantasy draft.
Jalen Hurts QB ranks since 2022:
Round 4: TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
Another tight end appears on the list, which is not surprising given the importance of safety and consistency in this position. Tight end fantasy performance remains among the most stable, largely due to a limited number of options that can deliver year after year. McBride joined this elite group last season when Zach Ertz suffered an injury, elevating McBride to the TE1 position in Arizona. From that point (Weeks 8-18), he ranked as the PPR TE3.
In the passing game, McBride became Kyler Murray’s primary target, achieving a target rate of 25.9% during the year, the highest among tight ends. He was a top 12 performer at his position in eight out of ten weeks as a starter, showcasing his reliability and solid floor within this offense. The addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. this season could prevent McBride from being the leading target in Arizona weekly; however, even as the secondary option in the passing game, he still has ample opportunity to remain productive. Achieving a top-five finish at his position should be within reach, provided he stays healthy.
Round 5: WR Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
Currently, Cooper is being selected as the 29th wide receiver in drafts, according to Sleeper’s ADP. This positions him as an excellent value pick for a player who has finished no worse than PPR WR18 in five of the last six seasons. The only exception occurred in 2021 during his final season with the Dallas Cowboys, when he placed as WR27, having missed several games that year. As we look ahead to 2023, even amid instability
At the quarterback position, Cooper concluded the year as the PPR WR16 a stark contrast to his current draft position this season.
Having just turned 30 during the offseason, Cooper is on the older side for a player in his role, yet he remains the clear frontrunner for targets within the Browns’ offense. Throughout his two seasons with the team, he recorded at least 1,100 receiving yards in each, even without the top quarterback, Deshaun Watson, for the majority of that time. Given his current draft cost, Cooper presents significant value and ranks among the safest fantasy investments available this season. There is minimal risk associated with disappointing outcomes at that cost, especially considering he has consistently demonstrated his ability to excel amidst varying situations, producing solid fantasy numbers consistently year after year.
Amari Cooper since joining the Browns (2022):
Round 6: TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
As another reliable option for this list, Engram topped both his team and the tight end position with a total of 140 targets, leading to a PPR TE4 finish last season. Engram is expected to be a crucial component of the Jaguars’ offense once again, arguably even more so this season compared to 2023, especially with Calvin Ridley leaving in free agency. Ridley held the second-most targets on the team last year with 132 and notably led in red zone targets, totaling 25 – the third-highest in the league and 15 more than Engram.
It is reasonable to expect that Engram will take on a portion of those valuable red zone targets previously handled by Ridley last season, which could lead to more than the four receiving touchdowns he achieved last year. Even without stellar touchdown production, Engram’s integral role in the Jacksonville offense
His performance was remarkably steady, as he never placed lower than TE26 in PPR throughout any week, while achieving a top-10 finish at his position 11 times over the course of 17 games. Engram is likely to play a crucial role in Jacksonville once more, with potentially even greater opportunity for development, establishing him as the most reliable pick in Round 6 of fantasy drafts for 2024.
“`html
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide: Identifying Safe Bets Round by Round
As the 2024 fantasy football season approaches, preparing for your draft is crucial to securing a winning team. Whether you’re a seasoned player or a newbie, knowing which players are reliable options can set you ahead of the competition. This guide will help you identify safe bets round by round, enhancing your chances of fantasy glory.
Understanding Safe Bets in Fantasy Football
Safe bets are players who consistently perform well, minimizing risk while maximizing your point potential. Identifying these players can significantly improve your draft strategy. Here are some key factors to consider when evaluating players:
- Consistency: Look for players with a history of steady performance.
- Injury History: Avoid players with frequent injuries that could limit their playing time.
- Offensive Scheme Fit: Evaluate how well a player fits into their team’s offensive strategy.
- Surrounding Talent: Consider how other players on the team can affect a player’s performance.
Round-by-Round Safe Bets
Round 1: Elite Running Backs
In the first round, lock in an elite running back. These players are typically workhorses capable of delivering high fantasy points week after week.
| Player | Team | 2023 Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers | 380 |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | 350 |
| Derrick Henry | Tennessee Titans | 370 |
Round 2: Top-Tier Wide Receivers
In the second round, consider targeting a top-tier wide receiver who can consistently find the end zone and gain yardage.
- Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings) – A top performer with impressive target volume.
- Davante Adams (Las Vegas Raiders) – Known for his route running and catching ability.
- Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins) – Extreme speed and big-play potential make him a safe pick.
Round 3: Reliable Quarterbacks
By the third round, it’s wise to pick a quarterback who has shown stability and production throughout their career.
| Player | Team | 2023 Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | 400 |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | 390 |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | 370 |
Round 4: Solid Tight Ends
As you approach the fourth round, selecting a reliable tight end can give you a substantial advantage over your opponents.
- Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) – A perennial top performer at the position.
- Darren Waller (New York Giants) – High target share and red zone potential.
- George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers) – Known for his big-play ability.
Round 5: Versatile Running Backs
In round five, aim for versatile running backs who can catch passes and contribute significantly to your fantasy points.
| Player | Team | 2023 Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | 340 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | New England Patriots | 310 |
| Austin Ekeler | Los Angeles Chargers | 360 |
Round 6: Emerging Wide Receivers
By the sixth round, look for emerging wide receivers who have a lot to prove this season. These players often have breakout potential.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions) – A rising star with a growing target share.
- DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles) – Known for his quick routes and reliable hands.
- Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts) – A strong WR2 with potential WR1 upside.
Benefits of Identifying Safe Bets
Identifying safe bets helps mitigate risk during your draft. Here are some key benefits:
- Increased Team Stability: Reliable players contribute consistent points.
- Less Stress: Knowing you have safe plays allows for strategic flexibility.
- Better Decision-Making: Focus on high-upside players in later rounds.
Practical Tips for Drafting Safe Bets
1. Do Your Research
Stay updated on player news, injuries, and training camp reports to identify trustworthy players.
2. Use Rankings and Projections
Utilize expert rankings and projections to gauge player value and potential performance.
3. Mock Drafts
Participate in mock drafts to practice your strategy and see where safe bets are being selected.
Case Studies: Success Stories
Let’s look at a couple of case studies where selecting safe bets paid off:
- 2023 Draft: Many who drafted Christian McCaffrey in Round 1 saw their teams flourish, thanks to his consistent performance.
- 2022 Draft: Selecting Patrick Mahomes in Round 3 provided a solid foundation for championship teams, delivering consistent 30+ point games.
First-Hand Experience
In my personal experience, focusing on safe bets in the earlier rounds allowed me to take calculated risks in the later rounds, leading to a championship in my league. Players like Alvin Kamara and Travis Kelce provided the stability I needed while I took chances on emerging talent like Amon-Ra St. Brown.
By prioritizing safe bets in your draft strategy, you set yourself up for success and increase your chances of bringing home the trophy this season. Happy drafting!
“`
